Raleigh, N.C. – Mike Castle’s loss in the Republican U.S. Senate primary last night has now made Delaware Democrats’ biggest and perhaps most surprising hope in what is otherwise shaping up to be a bad year for them. In PPP’s first test of the contest among likely voters, Democrat John Carney leads 48-37 over Tuesday’s Republican victor, Tea Party favorite Glen Urquhart, for the state’s at-large Congressional seat. In August’s measure of registered voters, Carney was on top, 48-30, with the movement toward Urquhart corresponding to the seven- to nine-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap compared to 2008’s turnout.
Unlike in the Senate matchup, there would have been little to no difference had establishment pick Michele Rollins gone on to face Carney. She would have started out with a 47-37 deficit. Urquhart is actually slightly better liked than Rollins, with a 30-29 favorability mark to her 29-33, though Carney tops all three at 34-24.
Compared to last month, Urquhart has slightly boosted his standing in the horse race among the Republicans and independents who actually plan to show up at the polls, taking a slight 38-36 lead among the latter, who had favored Carney previously, 33-31. 26% of unaffiliateds remain undecided, but even if they unilaterally move to Urquhart, he would get only 41% of the vote if all else remains equal.
“Delaware has really worked out well for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Christine O’Donnell’s primary win has ensured the party will keep its Senate seat and with Mike Castle leaving the House that’s the number one opportunity for a pick up on that end.”
PPP surveyed 958 likely Delaware voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the candidates for US House this fall were
Democrat John Carney and Republican
Michele Rollins, who would you vote for?
John Carney …………………………………………… 47%
Michele Rollins………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 If the candidates for US House this fall were
Democrat John Carney and Republican Glen
Urquhart, who would you vote for?
John Carney ……….. 48%
Glen Urquhart ……… 37%
Undecided…………… 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Carney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Rollins?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Glen Urquhart?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 41%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent or
another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
