Raleigh, N.C. – It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.
If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.
It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.
GOP voters are pretty sharply divided about O’Donnell as well. 45% have a favorable opinion of her with 41% seeing her unfavorably. Only 50% of primary voters think she’s fit to hold public office but she does much better than Castle on the ideology front- 53% think she’s about right.
If O’Donnell pulls it out Tuesday night it will be a major victory for Delaware’s small but united group of Tea Party voters. Just 25% of Republicans in the state consider themselves to be members of that movement but they give her a 79-18 advantage that’s more than enough to overcome her 52-39 deficit with everyone else.
“The biggest winner of the Delaware GOP primary may end up being Chris Coons,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Running against O’Donnell or a wounded Castle will put him in his strongest position since he entered the race.”
PPP surveyed 668 likely Republican primary voters on September 11th and 12th. The margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The Republican candidates for US Senate are
Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Castle…………………………………………….. 44%
Christine O’Donnell ………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Castle?
Favorable……………. 43%
Unfavorable ………… 47%
Not sure ……………… 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christine O’Donnell?
Favorable……………. 45%
Unfavorable ………… 41%
Not sure ……………… 14%
Q4 Do you think Mike Castle is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 55%
Too conservative……………………………………… 3%
About right ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you think Christine O’Donnell is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 11%
Too conservative……………………………………… 24%
About right ……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you think Mike Castle is fit to hold public
office?
Yes………………………………………………………… 54%
No …………………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you think Christine O’Donnell is fit to hold
public office?
Yes………………………………………………………… 50%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 The Republican candidates for US House are
Rose Izzo, Michele Rollins, and Glen Urquhart.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Rose Izzo……………………………………………….. 3%
Michele Rollins………………………………………… 38%
Glen Urquhart …………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Rollins?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Glen Urquhart?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 24%
Q11 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who was endorsed by Sarah Palin,
or would it not make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 35%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 24%
Doesn’t make a difference ………………………… 42%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q14 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 30%
Too conservative……………………………………… 16%
About right ……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Conservative…………………………………………… 64%
