Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s look at the
New York City mayoral race finds Bill de Blasio on the cusp of winning the
Democratic nomination outright Tuesday. He’s polling at 38% to 19% for William
Thompson, 13% for Christine Quinn, 9% for Anthony Weiner, and 5% for John Liu
with minor candidates combining for 7% of the vote and 10% still undecided.
If undecided voters broke in proportion to their current level of support-
of course no guarantee- de Blasio would win with 42% to 21% for Thompson. Even
if de Blasio falls short of 40% Tuesday though he’s still in very strong
position for a potential runoff, leading Thompson 53/33 and Quinn 67/21 in
hypothetical match ups.
De Blasio’s in a strong position for Tuesday because he is popular with
every segment of the electorate. His overall favorability is 62/18, and he
leads with men and women, Hispanics, whites, African American, and Asians,
young voters and older voters, voters in every borough, and liberals,
moderates, and conservatives alike.
In the race for Comptroller Eliot Spitzer has a slight lead over Scott
Stringer at 45/41, although with 14% of voters undecided it remains very much a
toss up. If Spitzer really wins it will be a pretty unusual race in that his
net favorability rating (-2 at 43/45) is 31 points lower than Stringer’s (+29
at 51/22). But Spitzer’s name
recognition is 88% to Stringer’s 73% and if he pulls it out it may suggest that
bad name recognition is better than no name recognition.
There continues to be a massive racial divide in this race with Stringer
leading by 26 points among white voters, but Spitzer up 43 with African
Americans and 24 with Hispanics.
“Between the question of whether de Blasio can get to 40% and who will win
the Comptroller race it looks like it could be a long night Tuesday in New York
City,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 683 likely
voters on September 7th and 8th. The margin of error was +/- 3.8%. This
poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization.
PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Mayor are Sal Albanese,
Randy Credico, Bill de Blasio, Neil Grimaldi,
John Liu, Christine Quinn, Erick Salgado,
William Thompson, Jr., and Anthony Weiner. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sal Albanese…………………………………………… 3%
Randy Credico ………………………………………… 1%
Bill de Blasio …………………………………………… 38%
Neil Grimaldi …………………………………………… 1%
John Liu …………………………………………………. 5%
Christine Quinn ……………………………………….. 13%
Erick Salgado………………………………………….. 2%
William Thompson Jr. ………………………………. 19%
Anthony Weiner ………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 The candidates for Comptroller are Eliot
Spitzer and Scott Stringer. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Eliot Spitzer…………………………………………….. 45%
Scott Stringer ………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Michael Bloomberg is doing as Mayor?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 If there was a runoff for Mayor between Bill de
Blasio and Christine Quinn who would you vote
for?
Bill de Blasio …………………………………………… 67%
Christine Quinn ……………………………………….. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If there was a runoff for Mayor between Bill de
Blasio and William Thompson, Jr., who would
you vote for?
Bill de Blasio …………………………………………… 53%
William Thompson Jr. ………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill de Blasio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christine Quinn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of William Thompson, Jr.?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Anthony Weiner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eliot Spitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Stringer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African American, press 3. If Asian, press 4. If
other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 44%
African American……………………………………… 27%
Asian……………………………………………………… 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 42%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q15 If you live in the Bronx, press 1. If Brooklyn,
press 2. If Manhattan, press 3. If Queens,
press 4. If Staten Island, press 5.
Bronx …………………………………………………….. 13%
Brooklyn…………………………………………………. 33%
Manhattan………………………………………………. 28%
Queens ………………………………………………….. 21%
Staten Island…………………………………………… 5%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
