Raleigh, N.C. – Mark Dayton is the slight favorite heading into the final three days of the Minnesota Governor’s race but Tom Emmer’s close enough that he could still come from behind to win. Dayton’s getting 43% to 40% for Emmer and 15% for Tom Horner.
The Minnesota Gubernatorial race is somewhat emblematic of the unhappiness voters across the country are feeling with politicians this year. None of the three candidates has a net positive favorability rating. Horner comes closest at -1 (35/36), followed by Dayton at -2 (43/45), and Emmer at -14 (37/51).
Neither Dayton nor Emmer really has any crossover appeal. Only 6% of Democrats are planning to vote for Emmer and just 5% of Republicans are for Dayton. That makes the state of this race pretty easy to spell out. Minnesota’s a Democratic state so if the Democratic candidate wins all the Democrats and the Republican candidate wins all the Republicans and the independents split pretty evenly the Democratic candidate’s going to win. That’s where the contest stands right now so Emmer will have to make up some ground in the final days if he’s going to pull this one out.
One other interesting note on the Minnesota Governor’s race is the impact that Pawlenty fatigue might be having on it. There are a lot of open Gubernatorial seats this year where the unpopularity of an outgoing Democratic Governor is making it hard for his party to hold onto the office, but Minnesota’s a rare case where an unpopular outgoing Republican could be part of his party’s problem. Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Pawlenty is doing to 50% who disapprove. And the state expresses little enthusiasm for a 2012 Pawlenty White House bid with only 23% supportive of the idea and 59% opposed to it. It’s a close race and could go either way but Pawlenty fatigue might help put Dayton over the top.
“Mark Dayton is a slight favorite to make the Minnesota Governor’s office a rare pick up for Democrats in what’s going to be a tough year for their party overall,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Tom Emmer’s close enough that if he can expand his lead with independents and win over a few more Democrats in the final days he could pull an upset.”
PPP surveyed 2,058 likely Minnesota voters from October 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Mark Dayton, Republican Tom Emmer and
Independent Party candidate Tom Horner. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 43%
Tom Emmer ……………………………………………. 40%
Tom Horner …………………………………………….. 15%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Dayton?
Favorable ………….. 43%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Emmer?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 51%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Horner?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 36%
Not sure ……………. 29%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tim
Pawlenty’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 Do you want Tim Pawlenty to run for President
in 2012?
Yes………………………………………………………… 23%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 43%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q11 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 9%
No …………………………………………………………. 91%
