Raleigh, N.C. – After a month of everything going Walter Dalton’s way in the Democratic race for Governor things have tightened up a little bit in the final week. What was a 10 point lead for Dalton a week ago is now down to 5 with him at 34% to 29% for Bob Etheridge. Bill Faison, Gary Dunn, and Gardenia Henley are all at 4% and Bruce Blackmon rounds out the field at 2%.
A runoff in the race remains unlikely because the lower tier candidates have so little support. An unusually high 24% of voters remain undecided in the closing stretch, speaking to the low key nature of the contest. If those folks break proportionately to their current support Dalton would win 44-38. One very positive sign for Dalton’s campaign is that he’s up 44-31 among those who have already voted.
Our final marriage amendment poll finds it leading by a 55-39 margin, little change from a week ago when it was ahead 55-41. The final yes percentage will likely be somewhere in the 57-59% range depending on how the undecideds break. Opponents of the amendment had an uphill battle in convincing voters that it was anything other than a referendum on gay marriage, even though it does go a lot further than that. 57% of voters in the state think gay marriage should be illegal (to only 34% who think it should be legal) and it’s not a coincidence that number correlates so closely with the 55% planning to support the amendment.
In some sense North Carolinians are voting against their own beliefs. 53% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, yet a majority also support the amendment that would ban both. The reason for that disconnect is even with just 24 hours until election day only 46% of voters realize the proposal bans both gay marriage and civil unions. Those informed voters oppose the amendment by a 61-37 margin but there may not be enough time left to get the rest of the electorate up to speed.
We polled the rest of the statewide primary contests with the exception of the Democratic Treasurer race and Republican Agriculture Commissioner one where incumbents Janet Cowell and Steve Troxler have persistently had big leads. Full results below in the PDF.
PPP surveyed 1,026 likely primary voters including 500 Democratic primary voters and 469 Republican primary voters on May 5th and 6th The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.1%, for the Democrats it’s +/-4.4% and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Marriage Amendment Toplines
Q1 Do you think you will vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary election on Tuesday, or will
you not vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 54%
Republican primary………………………………….. 39%
Not sure/Don’t think you’ll vote in a primary …. 7%
Q2 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?
Would vote for it………………………………………. 55%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 34%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..27%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………26%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q12 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 22%
No …………………………………………………………. 78%
Q13 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Etheridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q4 The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Bruce Blackmon, Walter Dalton, Gary Dunn,
Bob Etheridge, Bill Faison, and Gardenia
Henley. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bruce Blackmon………………………………………. 2%
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 34%
Gary Dunn ……………………………………………… 4%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 29%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 4%
Gardenia Henley……………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 The Democratic candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Linda Coleman and Eric
Mansfield. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 41%
Eric Mansfield …………………………………………. 23%
Undecided………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 The Democratic candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Scott Bryant and Walter
Smith. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Scott Bryant ……………………………………………. 21%
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 60%
Q7 The Democratic candidates for Labor
Commissioner are John Brooks, Marlowe
Foster, and Ty Richardson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
John Brooks……………………………………………. 18%
Marlowe Foster ……………………………………….. 14%
Ty Richardson…………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 38%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 16%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 84%
Independent……………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 64%
African-American …………………………………….. 30%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q13 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 73%
Q14 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 16%
336………………………………………………………… 15%
704………………………………………………………… 16%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Jim Harney, Scott Jones, Jim Mahan, Pat
McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and Paul
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Jim Harney……………………………………………… 2%
Scott Jones…………………………………………….. 3%
Jim Mahan ……………………………………………… 2%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 70%
Charles Kenneth Moss……………………………… 1%
Paul Wright …………………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Dale Folwell, Dan Forest, Tony
Gurley, Grey Mills, and Arthur Jason Rich. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Dale Folwell ……………………………………………. 22%
Dan Forest ……………………………………………… 17%
Tony Gurley ……………………………………………. 18%
Grey Mills……………………………………………….. 9%
Arthur Jason Rich ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 32%
Q4 The Republican candidates for State Auditor
are Joseph Hank DeBragga, Greg Dority,
Debra Goldman, Fern Shubert, and Rudy
Wright. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Joseph Hank DeBragga……………………………. 5%
Greg Dority …………………………………………….. 16%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 17%
Fern Shubert…………………………………………… 11%
Rudy Wright ……………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 44%
Q5 The Republican candidates for Insurance
Commissioner are Mike Causey, James
McCall, and Richard Morgan. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 20%
James McCall …………………………………………. 14%
Richard Morgan ………………………………………. 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 47%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Secretary of
State are Michael Beitler, A.J. Daoud, Kenn
Gardner, and Ed Goodwin. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 8%
A.J. Daoud……………………………………………… 11%
Kenn Gardner …………………………………………. 23%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 14%
Undecided………………………………………………. 45%
Q7 The Republican candidates for Superintendent
of Public Instruction are Richard Alexander,
Mark Crawford, Ray Ernest Martin, David
Scholl, and John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Richard Alexander …………………………………… 14%
Mark Crawford ………………………………………… 12%
Ray Ernest Martin ……………………………………. 6%
David Scholl……………………………………………. 6%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 45%
Q8 The Republican candidates for State Treasurer
are Frank Roche and Steve Royal. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Frank Roche …………………………………………… 24%
Steve Royal ……………………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 47%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 47%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q11 If you are a Republican, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent……………………………………………. 21%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
Q13 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 21%
No …………………………………………………………. 79%
Q14 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 11%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
