Raleigh, N.C. – Walter Dalton continues to have all the momentum in the North Carolina Democratic primary for Governor. He now leads with 36% fo 26% for Bob Etheridge, 5% for Bill Faison, 3% each for Gardenia Henley and Bruce Blackmon, and 2% for Gary Dunn.
Dalton has gone from 15% to 26% to 36% over the course of PPP’s last three polls on the race. Etheridge meanwhile has remained stagnant at 25-26%. Dalton’s caught up with Etheridge on the favorability front. 40% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of each of them.
The chances of a runoff at this point are pretty minuscule. The reason there won’t be is that Bill Faison has never caught on with primary voters. More- 24%- continue to view him negatively than the 18% who see him positively. He would have had to at least get into the 15-20% range to keep Dalton or Etheridge from getting to 40% and at this point it doesn’t look like that will happen.
“Walter Dalton’s gained 21 points in a month while all the other candidates have remained in place,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Something major would have to happen in the next week for him to not take the nomination.”
There’s been a lot of movement in the contest for Lieutenant Governor over the last week as well. Linda Coleman had held a persistent 10-12 point lead over Eric Mansfield and now she’s built that to 21 points at 39-18.
Democrats are headed for a potential embarrassing outcome in the Labor Commissioner primary where Ty Richardson, who’s drawn attention mostly for his DUI’s, leads with 26% to 20% for John Brooks and 12% for Marlowe Foster. Janet Cowell doesn’t appear likely to have any trouble putting away Ron Elmer in her reelection bid for State Treasurer, leading 50-11. And Scott Bryant has a small lead over Walter Smith, 20-17, in the race for Agriculture Commissioner with 63% unsurprisingly undecided in that low interest race.
PPP surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters from April 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Etheridge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 The Democratic candidates for Governor are
Bruce Blackmon, Walter Dalton, Gary Dunn,
Bob Etheridge, Bill Faison, and Gardenia
Henley. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Bruce Blackmon………………………………………. 3%
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 36%
Gary Dunn ……………………………………………… 2%
Bob Etheridge …………………………………………. 26%
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 5%
Gardenia Henley……………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q5 The Democratic candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Linda Coleman and Eric
Mansfield. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Linda Coleman………………………………………… 39%
Eric Mansfield …………………………………………. 18%
Undecided………………………………………………. 43%
Q6 The Democratic candidates for Agriculture
Commissioner are Scott Bryant and Walter
Smith. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Scott Bryant ……………………………………………. 20%
Walter Smith …………………………………………… 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 63%
Q7 The Democratic candidates for Labor
Commissioner are John Brooks, Marlowe
Foster, and Ty Richardson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
John Brooks……………………………………………. 20%
Marlowe Foster ……………………………………….. 12%
Ty Richardson…………………………………………. 26%
Undecided………………………………………………. 42%
Q8 The Democratic candidates for State Treasurer
are Janet Cowell and Ron Elmer. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Janet Cowell …………………………………………… 50%
Ron Elmer………………………………………………. 11%
Undecided………………………………………………. 39%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 16%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 59%
Man……………………………………………………….. 41%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If an
independent, press 2.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 87%
Independent……………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 27%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q15 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 13%
No …………………………………………………………. 87%
Q16 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 10%
910………………………………………………………… 12%
919………………………………………………………… 30%
