Raleigh, N.C. – A few polls in the last week have suggested the once presumably safe and almost uncontested gubernatorial and Senate races in traditionally solid blue New York are more competitive than imagined. PPP’s first look at the state this cycle, however, shows that the race to replace incumbent Governor David Paterson, while closer than before the GOP primary, is still Andrew Cuomo’s to lose. He leads outspoken Republican nominee Carl Paladino, 53-38.
Paladino leads with independents, 46-40, but they make up only 21% of the electorate. Among the 48% plurality of Democrats, Cuomo has an 81-13 lead, and he pulls 19% of the 31%-minority Republicans, holding the Republican to 73% of his own party’s support. Paladino earns only 13% of Democrats.
Part of the unexpectedly close race is that New York is showing just as large an enthusiasm gap as in some Midwestern and Southern states where Election Night results are going to be particularly bad for Democrats next month. President Obama won the Empire State by more than 25 points two years ago, but this year’s electorate voted for him over John McCain by only 14—an 11-point pro-Republican shift. If Obama voters turned out at the same level as they did in that election, Cuomo would have an insurmountable 58-35 lead.
Cuomo is reasonably popular, with a 49-39 personal favorability rating, but he bests Paladino’s 34-51 mark by 27 points on the margin. Remarkably, Paladino has almost closed the name recognition gap with Cuomo, a statewide officeholder, former Clinton cabinet secretary, and son of the former three-term governor Mario Cuomo.
“Andrew Cuomo’s not going to win by the kind of lofty margins he was posting in polls earlier this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he’s still headed for a pretty comfortable victory in this race. Paladino is not turning out to be a particularly formidable opponent.”
PPP surveyed 592 likely New York voters from October 1st to 3rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Andrew Cuomo and Republican Carl Paladino.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 53%
Carl Paladino ………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable ………….. 49%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carl Paladino?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 51%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q5 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 33%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
undefined
