Raleigh, N.C. – Despite yesterday’s release showing Terry Branstad in a less than comfortable position in the Republican primary for Iowa governor, he is by far the most popular of the candidates contending for that office, and leads incumbent Chet Culver by 15 points. Rod Roberts and Bob Vander Plaats also beat Culver, but by much narrower margins. Iowa voters are sour on Culver’s job performance.
Brandstad routs Culver 52-37. Independents go for the former governor over the current one, 49-33, and Branstad pulls 20% of Democrats to Culver’s 7% of Republicans. Culver also gets only 71% of his own party’s support to Branstad’s 85% of his.
Vander Plaats, the leading conservative challenger to Brandstad, is up on Culver 43-38, while Roberts also edges Culver 40-38. The two do equally poorly with Democrats and top Culver with independents, but Vander Plaats by six more points on the margin. Vander Plaats does slightly better with the GOP than does Roberts.
Brandstad’s personal favorability is 42-37, to Vander Plaats’ 28-30 and Roberts’ 15-19. Brandstad is the only one with a net positive margin among independents, and the only one better liked among Republicans than disliked among Democrats.
Culver’s current 38% ceiling in his re-election bid is no surprise when considering his dismal 28-56 job approval numbers. Only 56% of his own party members approve, with 89% of Republicans and 59% of independents disapproving.
“Chet Culver is in big trouble, and while Terry Branstad isn’t massively popular, he takes advantage of Culver’s vulnerability with his own party to take a large lead a week before the primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,277 Iowa voters from May 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the survey was +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chet Culver’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Branstad?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rod Roberts?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 65%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Vander Plaats?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 43%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Chet Culver and Republican Terry Branstad,
who would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 37%
Terry Branstad………………………………………… 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Chet Culver and Republican Rod Roberts, who
would you vote for?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 38%
Rod Roberts……………………………………………. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor were Democrat
Chet Culver and Republican Bob Vander
Plaats, who would you vote for?
Chet Culver……………………………………………. 38%
Bob Vander Plaats………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 9%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal…………………………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q13 If you are white, press one now. If other, press
2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%