Raleigh, N.C. – Terry Branstad is already suffering from negative approval numbers and if voters could take it back they now say they would have given Chet Culver a second term as Governor. 41% of Iowans approve of Branstad’s job performance, and 45% disapprove. If they could head back to the polls to reconsider the two men, Culver would win by a nose, with 48% to Branstad’s 46%.
According to exit polls, Branstad won the independent vote by ten points, but since then, those voters have flipped along with the overall electorate by 12 points, now preferring Culver by two. Along with the resurgence in Democratic turnout following an historically Republican-heavy electorate last fall, this explains the entire change, as partisans are almost exactly as polarized as they were then.
“Voters throughout the Midwest turned toward Republican Governors last year in hopes that would turn things around in their states,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Iowa joins Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as places where voters are now beginning to think their former Democratic Governors might not have been so bad.”
Iowa became an unlikely state to legalize same-sex marriage two years ago, and conservative voters revolted last fall by expelling from office three of the judges who ruled in favor of marriage equality. But a 35% plurality of Iowans favor full marriage rights for gay couples, and another 30% prefer civil unions with all the same legal rights as marriage. Only a third believe gay couples’ relationships should have no recognition under the law at all. 82% of Democrats and 71% of independents support at least civil unions, including a huge 57% of Democrats who favor full marriage equality.
Former Governor Tom Vilsack and his First Lady Christie are both well liked. 46% see the governor favorably, and 34% unfavorably. The spread for his wife is 38-23.
PPP surveyed 1,109 Iowa voters from April 15th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Chet
Culver or Republican Terry Branstad?
Chet Culver…………………………………………….. 48%
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christie Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Latham?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Loebsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Leonard Boswell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q12 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..35%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………29%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q13 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 96%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
