Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s final polls for the cycle in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Idaho find close races for Governor in the New England states, with Republican Butch Otter pulling away in Idaho.
In Connecticut Democrat Dan Malloy leads Republican challenger Tom Foley 44-41, with independent Joe Visconti getting 6%. When you take Visconti out of the mix and push undecideds about who they would vote for, Malloy maintains a 3 point lead at 47/44. The race has tightened since a month ago when we found Malloy leading 43/35. Since that time Foley’s party has unified around him, taking him from 63% of the Republican vote to 80%. Foley is also keeping it close in the normally blue state by winning independents 43/29.
In the race for Governor of Massachusetts Republican Charlie Baker leads Democratic foe Martha Coakley 46/42, with third party candidates combining for 7% and 6% still undecided. It’s worth noting that undecideds, when prodded about who they lean toward, choose Coakley 39/14. Supporters of the third party candidates also say Coakley would be their second choice by a 38/29 spread. In a 2 way race Baker’s lead goes down to 48/47, so there is some reason to think the contest could end up being tighter. Ed Markey leads Republican challenger Brian Herr by a comfortable 52/38 spread in the US Senate race.
When we polled Idaho in October the race for Governor was surprisingly competitive, with Republican Butch Otter leading his Democratic opponent A.J. Balukoff only 39/35. Since then the race has broken open though, and Otter now leads Balukoff 49/37. This is simply a story of GOP voters unifying around Otter as the election has moved closer. In October he was getting just 62% of the Republican vote, and now that’s up to 76%. Balukoff leads with independents (45/33) and also has his party more unified around him, getting 87% of Democrats to Otter’s 76% of Republicans. But it takes more than that for a Democrat to win in Idaho.
PPP surveyed 1,001 likely voters in Idaho, 931 likely voters in Connecticut, and 887 likely voters in Massachusetts from October 30th to November 1st. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.1%, +/-3.2%, and +/-3.3% respectively. 80% of interviews for each poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here (CT), here (ID), and here (MA).
Connecticut Toplines
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Dan Malloy, Republican Tom Foley, and
petition candidate Joe Visconti. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 44%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 41%
Joe Visconti ……………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Combined horse race, with Visconti supporters
and undecideds asked if they lean Malloy or
Foley
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 47%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dan Malloy’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Foley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Blumenthal’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chris
Murphy’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 7%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 31%
Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q14 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Massachusetts Toplines
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Martha Coakley, Republican Charlie Baker,
United Independent Evan Falchuk,
independent Scott Lively, and independent Jeff
McCormick. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 42%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 46%
Evan Falchuk ………………………………………….. 3%
Scott Lively …………………………………………….. 3%
Jeff McCormick ……………………………………….. 1%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Coakley or Baker
Martha Coakley……………………………………….. 47%
Charlie Baker ………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat
Ed Markey and Republican Brian Herr. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Ed Markey………………………………………………. 52%
Brian Herr ………………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martha Coakley?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Baker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ed
Markey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Herr?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Elizabeth Warren’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 3%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 7%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 17%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 42%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older
than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q16 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Idaho Toplines
Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Butch Otter, Democrat A.J. Balukoff,
Libertarian John Bujak, Constitution Party
candidate Steve Pankey, independent Jill
Humble, and independent Pro Life. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Butch Otter……………………………………………… 49%
A.J. Balukoff……………………………………………. 37%
John Bujak ……………………………………………… 5%
Steve Pankey………………………………………….. 2%
Jill Humble ……………………………………………… 1%
Pro Life ………………………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Combined horse race, with third-party
supporters and undecideds asked if they lean
Otter or Balukoff
Butch Otter……………………………………………… 55%
A.J. Balukoff……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican Brad Little, Democrat Bert Marley,
and Constitution Party candidate David
Hartigan. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Brad Little……………………………………………….. 56%
Bert Marley …………………………………………….. 30%
David Hartigan ………………………………………… 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Lawerence Denney and Democrat
Holli Woodings. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Lawerence Denney………………………………….. 51%
Holli Woodings………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 The candidates for State Treasurer are
Republican Ron Crane and Democrat Deborah
Silver. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
Ron Crane ……………………………………………… 55%
Deborah Silver ………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Lawrence Wasden and Democrat
Bruce Bistline. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Lawrence Wasden …………………………………… 64%
Bruce Bistline………………………………………….. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Republican Sherri Ybarra and
Democrat Jana Jones. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sherri Ybarra ………………………………………….. 46%
Jana Jones …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Butch Otter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of A.J. Balukoff?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Crapo’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 30%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 62%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 28%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 22%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 28%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White ……………………………………………………. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q17 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q18 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
