Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s first poll of the Texas Senate runoff finds Ted Cruz with a surprising 49-44 lead and a much more enthusiastic cadre of supporters than former front runner David Dewhurst.
Cruz’s lead expands to a whooping 59-36 margin over Dewhurst among voters who describe themselves as ‘very excited’ about voting in the election. The lower turnout is, the better Cruz’s chances will be. Dewhurst leads 51-43 with ‘somewhat excited’ voters and 50-36 with those who say they are ‘not that excited.’ The big question is whether those less enthused folks will actually bother to turn out or not.
This race is one of the most stark examples of the Tea Party movement propelling a candidate that we’ve seen to date. 40% of voters identify themselves as members of that movement and Cruz has a 71-26 advantage with them. Dewhurst leads 57-34 with non-Tea Partiers, and they are 50% of the electorate, but it’s not nearly enough to drown out Cruz’s advantage with that group.
Texas is also an exceptionally rare state where Hispanic voters might be the difference maker in a Republican primary. Cruz has a 78-19 advantage with them. Other groups that give Cruz large leads are men (55-38), folks describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ (61-34), Evangelicals (50-42), and middle aged voters (54-40).
Dewhurst’s leads come with women (49-44), seniors (47-45), voters identifying as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (49-45), and moderates (70-20). The fact that Dewhurst is leading by 50 points with moderates yet still losing overall is a pretty good sign of how relevant that voter bloc is within the Republican Party these days.
“Ted Cruz looks like the new front runner in the Texas Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Not only is he ahead overall, but he’s up by even more with the folks who are most likely to vote in what will probably be a low turnout election. The momentum swing in this race over the last six weeks is seismic.”
PPP surveyed 468 likely Republican runoff voters on July 10th and 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 How likely are you to vote in the runoff election
for US Senate later this month: will you
definitely vote, probably vote, are the chances
fifty-fifty, or will you probably not vote?
Will definitely vote ……………………………………100%
Will probably vote ……………………………………. 0%
Chances are 50-50 ………………………………….. 0%
Will probably not vote……………………………….. 0%
Q2 Are you planning to vote in the Democratic or
Republican Senate runoff, or are you not sure?
Democratic runoff ……………………………………. 0%
Republican runoff…………………………………….100%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Senate are Ted
Cruz and David Dewhurst. If the runoff was
today, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 49%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
runoff election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 48%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 30%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 22%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 38%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 6%
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
African-American …………………………………….. 3%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 65%
Are not …………………………………………………… 35%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 40%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 52%
Didn’t Answer………………………………………….. 0%
