Polls

Cruz leads national Republican field

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest
national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters
to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17%
for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco
Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and
Scott Walker.

Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone
else has more or less stayed in place. He’s made himself the face of a
government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a
64/20 margin. It’s not surprising that Republicans identifying as ‘very
conservative’ support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party
supports it by a 46/36 margin.

Cruz is leading the GOP field based especially on his appeal to ‘very
conservative’ primary voters, who he gets 34% with t0 17% for Rand Paul and 12%
for Paul Ryan. Voters who fall into that ideological group make up the largest
portion of the Republican electorate at 39%. With moderates Cruz gets only 4%
with Christie leading at 34% to 12% for Jeb Bush and 10% for Marco Rubio, but
they only account for 18% of GOP voters and thus aren’t all that relevant to
Cruz’s prospects for winning a Republican nomination.

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader
of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch
McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who’s more trusted
between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it
comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins
out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who
have been leading the party for years.

“Ted Cruz this week established himself as the grassroots hero of the
Republican Party,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The
party base has a lot more faith in him than their more official leaders like
Mitch McConnell and John Boehner.”

PPP surveyed 743
Republican primary voters on September 25th and 26th. The margin of error
is +/-3.6%. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or
political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 20%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 17%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q2 Who do you trust more: Ted Cruz or Mitch
McConnell?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 49%
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%

Q3 Who do you trust more: Ted Cruz or John
Boehner?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 51%
John Boehner …………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q4 Who do you trust more: Ted Cruz or John
McCain?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 52%
John McCain…………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Would you support or oppose shutting down
the government unless Obamacare is
defunded?
Support ………………………………………………….. 64%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Do you think Twitter allows President Obama to
go over the 140 character limit for a tweet, or
not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 13%
No …………………………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

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