Raleigh, N.C. – If the 2016 presidential contest were between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, it has the potential of producing the most lopsided national popular vote result since Lyndon Johnson routed Barry Goldwater in 1964. But Cruz remains at or near the top of Republicans’ preference in the primary.
Clinton leads Cruz by 17 points, 50-33, by far the worst outcome of the four matchups tested. As usual, Chris Christie comes closest to Clinton, trailing by only five (44-39), followed by Jeb Bush nine points down (48-39) and Rand Paul 12 (49-37).
If Joe Biden were the Democratic nominee, he would do an average of about eight and a half points worse than Clinton. He trails Christie by seven (38-45) and Bush by one (42-43), but still leads Paul by seven (45-38) and Cruz by 10 (46-36).
Despite Cruz’s near-record poor performance against Clinton and Biden, he is still in a statistical tie for first place with five other candidates in the primary. He led the field with 20% to Rand Paul’s 17%, Chris Christie’s 14%, Jeb Bush’s 11%, and Paul Ryan’s and Marco Rubio’s 10% in late September, the first time PPP had found that nationally, and an eight-point jump for Cruz from July. Now, four candidates fall between 14% and 16%, with two others theoretically also tied for the lead. Paul and Christie nominally top at 16% over Cruz’s 15%, Bush’s 14%, Ryan’s 11%, Rubio’s 10%, Bobby Jindal’s 6%, and Rick Santorum’s 5%, with 8% undecided.
Cruz falling five points at this point does not mean much when no one else can claim momentum or a stronger position. Cruz also remains in the lead with the most right-wing voters. He has 26% to Paul’s 18%, Bush’s 15%, and Ryan’s 13% among those who identify as “very conservative”—about a third of the electorate.
“Chris Christie will win a dominant reelection tonight,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But he- and all the rest of the Republican 2016 hopefuls- still run behind Hillary Clinton for President.”
PPP surveyed 649 American voters, including an oversample of 400 usual Democratic primary voters and 629 Republican primary voters, from October 29th to 31st, 2013. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.8%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion, and +/-3.9% for the GOP portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 38%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Ted Cruz,
who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 46%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 45%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 14%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 5%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 7%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 13%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 9%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q2 If Sarah Palin was not a candidate for
President in 2016, who would you support
given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 16%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 6%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 16%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 11%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you think high school students should be
allowed to wear confederate flags to school, or
not?
Think they should…………………………………….. 43%
Think they should not……………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you think high school students should be
allowed to wear gay pride flags to school, or
not?
Think they should…………………………………….. 28%
Think they should not……………………………….. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you think it’s more appropriate for high
school students to wear gay pride flags or
confederate flags to school?
Gay pride flags………………………………………… 9%
Confederate flags ……………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 1%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 67%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 12%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 27%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 6%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 4%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 14%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 13%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 39%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 34%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 5%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
