Raleigh, N.C. – Every time PPP polls Texas the Republican Senate primary gets closer and closer. What was a 29 point lead for David Dewhurst in September has now been cut all the way down to 12 points. Dewhurst is at 38% to 26% for Ted Cruz, 8% for Tom Leppert, and 7% for Craig James.
Cruz’s support has increased from 12% to 18% to 26% over our last three polls. Meanwhile Dewhurst has remained stagnant in the 36-41% range. Cruz’s name recognition has increased from 29% to 48% with Republican primary voters since January and the change has almost all been positive. His favorability’s gone from 15/14 to 31/17.
It is the furthest right segment of the Republican electorate where Cruz is gaining momentum. Among Tea Party voters he and Dewhurst are tied at 35%. Dewhurst is winning easily, 41-20, with non-Tea Partiers. There’s also a bit of a generational divide with Dewhurst leading by 26 points among seniors but holding only a 6-8 point lead with voters in the younger age groups.
Whoever wins the primary will start out as a pretty strong favorite in the general election. Dewhurst leads by 14-15 points against the main Democratic candidates, 50-35 over Sean Hubbard and 49-35 over Paul Sadler. The Democrats are a little bit closer to Cruz but still each trail him by 10 points- Hubbard is down 43-33 and Sadler is at a 44-34 disadvantage. The only real chance Democrats have at winning this race is if the unpopular James somehow won the nomination. He leads the Democrats by considerably more narrow margins than the rest of the GOP field- it’s just 4 points at 40-36 over Sadler and 6 points at 41-35 over Hubbard.
“The excitement in the Texas Senate race will be in the Republican primary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Things are tightening up between David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz, but either of them would be a strong favorite in the general election.”
PPP surveyed 591 Texas voters from April 19th to 22nd, as well as 400 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.0% and for the GOP survey it’s +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 The major Republican candidates for US
Senate are Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Craig
James, and Tom Leppert. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 26%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 38%
Craig James……………………………………………. 7%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 8%
Someone else…………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 59%
Are not …………………………………………………… 41%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 47%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sean Hubbard?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Craig James?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Sadler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Sean
Hubbard, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 43%
Sean Hubbard…………………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Paul
Sadler, who would you vote for?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 44%
Paul Sadler …………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Sean Hubbard, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 50%
Sean Hubbard…………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Paul Sadler, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 49%
Paul Sadler …………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Craig James and Democrat Sean
Hubbard, who would you vote for?
Craig James……………………………………………. 41%
Sean Hubbard…………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Craig James and Democrat Paul
Sadler, who would you vote for?
Craig James……………………………………………. 40%
Paul Sadler …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Sean
Hubbard, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 44%
Sean Hubbard…………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Tom Leppert and Democrat Paul
Sadler, who would you vote for?
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 44%
Paul Sadler …………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
