Governor Charlie Crist surges ahead in the Florida Senatorial race. By far the most popular candidate, Crist’s closest competitor Marco Rubio trails the Governor by almost ten points.
Marco Rubio is preferred by Republicans, but he doesn’t have the undivided support of Florida Republicans. 54% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the former Florida House Speaker and Republicans choose him over Crist 54:23.
Crist has a much more ideologically diverse group of supporters. Florida voters approve of Crist 44:41. Leaving the Republican Party cost the Governor the support of many Republicans, only 29% of Republicans give Crist high marks. Independents and Democrats are much fonder of their governor; 46% of Independents and 58% of Democrats approve of Crist.
The Democratic Senatorial Primary won’t be held until late August and the lack of a unified front in such a contentious election may be hurting the party. Neither Democratic candidate has substantial name recognition; 60% of voters are unsure of their opinion of Jeff Greene and 55% have yet to form an opinion of Congressman Kendrick Meek. Democratic voters are more attracted to Crist than their own party’s candidates. However, Meek is more likely to pull votes away from Crist than Greene. Meek is seen more favorably amongst Democrats than Greene; 33:23.
It is unclear that Crist will be able to maintain his lead. Democrats represent 52% of Crist’s supporters. Crist loses support in a horserace that includes the more popular Democrat, Meek versus one that includes Greene, suggesting that as the August 24th Democratic primary approaches and passes and Democrats begin to rally their support behind one candidate, Crist may lose much of his foundation of support.
“This election is especially exciting because Crist could prove to be an example of a successful independent with support from across ideological borders,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will be interesting to see if he can maintain enough support from Democrats to win the race, following the Democratic primary.”
PPP surveyed 900 Florida voters from July 16-18, 2010. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.26%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 45%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 47%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you support or oppose drilling for oil off the
coast of Florida? If you support it, press 1. If
you oppose it, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 51%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Charlie Crist’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Greene? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3
Favorable……………. 15%
Unfavorable ………… 26%
Not Sure……………… 60%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kendrick Meek? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 55%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 22%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alex Snitker? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 63%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Independent Charlie Crist, Democrat Jeff
Greene, Republican Marco Rubio, and
Libertarian Alex Snitker, who would you vote
for? If Charlie Crist, press 1. If Jeff Greene,
press 2. If Marco Rubio, press 3. If Alex
Snitker, press 4. If you’re undecided, press 5.
Crist ………………………………………………………. 38%
Greene…………………………………………………… 13%
Rubio …………………………………………………….. 29%
Snitker …………………………………………………… 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Independent Charlie Crist, Democrat Kendrick
Meek, Republican Marco Rubio, and
Libertarian Alex Snitker, who would you vote
for? If Charlie Crist, press 1. If Kendrick Meek,
press 2. If Marco Rubio, press 3. If Alex
Snitker, press 4. If you’re undecided, press 5.
Crist ………………………………………………………. 35%
Meek……………………………………………………… 17%
Rubio …………………………………………………….. 29%
Snitker …………………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If Charlie Crist is elected to the Senate do you
think he should caucus with the Democrats or
the Republicans? If the Democrats, press 1. If
the Republicans, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Democrats ……………………………………………… 43%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 37%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 21%
Q12 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 6%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
