Polls

Cornyn looking comfortable in his seat

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
10 years into his time in the US Senate, John
Cornyn is still a blank slate to a surprisingly large percentage of
Texas voters. They’re closely divided on his job performance with 34% of
voters approving of him and 36% disapproving, with 30% not having an
opinion either way.

Those numbers don’t really mean Cornyn is vulnerable. It’s harder for
a Senator in a big state like Texas to maintain a major statewide
profile  than it is in most of the rest of the country. Cornyn’s numbers
are somewhat similar to what we found for Bill Nelson early in the 2012
election cycle, and he went on to win reelection by double digits
anyway.

Nevertheless Democrats could be more competitive than usual if they put
up a strong candidate against Cornyn. Bill White comes within 3 points
in a hypothetical match up, 45/42. Cornyn leads Julian Castro by 7
points at 48/41, Annise Parker by 11 at 47/36, and Wendy Davis by 11 at
48/37.

There’s been some talk about a potential primary challenge to Cornyn,
but his approval rating with Republican voters is a 57/15 spread. That
doesn’t suggest a lot of the party faithful are looking to replace him.

Cornyn only won reelection by 12 points in 2008 against an under
funded opponent so a quality Democratic candidate making this a single
digit race is a pretty realistic possibility, but actually winning the
race might be a stretch. Nevertheless with Cornyn’s NRSC gig up it looks
like he has some work to do to reacquaint himself with Texas voters
over the next 21 months.

“Even after ten years in the Senate a lot of Texans are unfamiliar with John
Cornyn,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the
Republican lean of the state should make him a clear favorite for reelection
anyway.”

PPP surveyed 500
Texas voters from January 24 to 27th. The margin of error is +/-4.4%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .34%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .30%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julian Castro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wendy Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Annise Parker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Julian
Castro, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 48%
Julian Castro…………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Wendy
Davis, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 48%
Wendy Davis…………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Annise
Parker, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 47%
Annise Parker …………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican John Cornyn and Democrat Bill
White, who would you vote for?
John Cornyn …………………………………………… 45%
Bill White………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ………………………………………………….. 49%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q12 Would you support or oppose putting armed
police officers in every school in the country?
Support ………………………………………………….. 47%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q13 Would you support or oppose providing
teachers with guns?
Support ………………………………………………….. 31%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q15 Who do you trust more on the issue of guns:
Barack Obama or the NRA?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
The NRA………………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q16 Would you support or opposing impeaching
President Obama?
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 25%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%

Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q20 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q21 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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