Raleigh, N.C. – It seems like the Tea Party is planning primary challenges to every Republican and his brother next year. Among them may be Tennessee Senator Bob Corker. But while Corker is hypothetically vulnerable on his right, two potential named opponents get blown out of the water at this early stage.
43% of the state’s GOP primary voters say they would support a generic “more conservative challenger” to Corker in next year’s primary. 38% stick with Corker. Except with the 45% plurality who say they are very conservative, Corker easily beats this unnamed foe, but the farthest right favor the conservative by a 66-24 margin.
This desire is probably less an indictment of Corker than a fervor for hard-line purity by the fringe of the base; they would favor anyone who is “more conservative” if they had a choice. In fact, Corker’s job approval rating is actually higher with conservatives than with moderates or the miniscule group who claim they are liberal. 23% do think Corker too liberal, but 55% say his ideology is “about right.” Compare that to South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham, with whom voters do have an ideological problem; 42% of his state’s Republicans see him as too liberal.
As such, Corker beats both real candidates matched up with him: Rep. Marsha Blackburn, 50-30, and country star Hank Williams, Jr., 66-13. Williams has mentioned a desire to run for the Senate in the past. Blackburn ties Corker at 39% with the rightmost voters, but he trounces her with everyone else, and beats Williams overwhelmingly across the board.
“There is some desire among Tennessee Republicans to replace Corker with someone further to the right,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the question becomes whether anyone viable will actually challenge Corker, and whether that challenge will be well funded.”
In the race for the White House, Mike Huckabee has a sound 31-17 lead over Sarah Palin, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich back at 11% apiece, Ron Paul with 10%, Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels with 3% each, and John Thune with 1%. The “third-place candidate” is someone else/undecided, with 14%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Tennessee Republican primary voters from February 9th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Corker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 31%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you think Bob Corker is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 23%
Too conservative……………………………………… 9%
About right ……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the Republican primary for Senate next year
was between Bob Corker and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 38%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Bob Corker and Hank Williams Jr.,
who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 66%
Hank Williams, Jr. ……………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for Senate next
year were Bob Corker and Marsha Blackburn,
who would you vote for?
Bob Corker……………………………………………… 50%
Marsha Blackburn……………………………………. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%