Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Tom Corbett has upped his lead over Democrat Dan Onorato in the race to succeed outgoing Democratic Governor Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania, from 45-35 among registered voters in June to 48-35 among likely voters now.  17% are undecided.

There has been only slight movement since the last PPP poll of the race, with Democrats a little more supportive of Onorato and independents a little more supportive of Corbett.  Corbett still gets 22% of Democrats, to Onorato’s 12% of Republicans, both an unusually high level of crossover in this highly polarized climate.  The real change, however, is in the makeup of the electorate, which is more conservative and more Republican.

Rendell’s job approval rating has taken a negative 18-point swing since June, from 35-53 to 27-63, which cannot help Onorato in the horse race, especially since Democrats approve only 45-42.  But Onorato’s own favorability ratings are actually better among likely voters than all registered voters.  At 22-25 in June, he was less popular than Corbett by 15 points on the margin.  But at 30-28 now, and with Corbett at 33-23, that disadvantage is now only 8 points.  After the competitive primaries, both Corbett and Onorato are better liked among their respective bases than they are disliked by their opposing party’s voters, who still are not very familiar with them.  But though Democrats in this electorate now like Onorato significantly more and Corbett a lot less, the small set of unaffiliated voters has also improved its views of Corbett, while they are still down on Onorato.

“In many races, the Democratic candidate is simply suffering from a less energized base,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “But in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial contest, Tom Corbett is simply pulling too many of the Democrats away from Dan Onorato, on top of the usual Republican advantage with independents.  That is a deadly combination for the Democrats if they hope to keep this seat.”

PPP surveyed 585 likely Pennsylvania voters from August 14^th to 16^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Corbett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Onorato?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q4 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan
Onorato. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 48%
Dan Onorato …………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%

Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%

Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%