Raleigh, N.C. – While yesterday’s release showed Joe Sestak as an even bet to retain a Democratic seat in the U.S. Senate for Pennsylvania, it continues to look like the party will not hold the governorship. Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato, 45-35, after coming out on top, 45-32, in PPP’s previous poll of the state in February.
Onorato’s problem is that he is still getting only 57% of his party’s support following the primary, while he was pulling a similar 54% four months ago; usually the party faithful rally around their official nominee. Corbett earns the vote of 21% of Democrats and 74% of the GOP. While Onorato now gets 12% of Republicans, to 8% last time, he has also fallen into a deeper hole with the small proportion of the electorate not affiliated with either party.
With greater exposure to the entire state electorate, Corbett has become more popular and Onorato less. Corbett has improved his personal favorability across the partisan divide, but while Onorato is now better liked by his own party, Republicans and independents who have gotten to know him are decidedly down on him. Overall, Corbett is at 31-19, versus 27-20 in February. Onorato slid to 22-25 from 15-13.
Onorato is also hurt by Ed Rendell’s unpopularity. Only 35% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the job their current governor, a staunch Democrat, is doing. 53% disapprove. That is largely unchanged from the 35-51 margin PPP found in February.
“If Dan Onorato can haul his own party members back into the fold over the next four months, he could still win,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If not, it looks like the governorship will continue its 40-year back-and-forth trend between the two parties.”
PPP surveyed 609 Pennsylvania voters from June 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Corbett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 50%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Onorato?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 53%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan
Onorato, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett……………………………………………. 45%
Dan Onorato …………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 5%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 8%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
