Polls

Corbett a massive underdog for a second term

| Dustin Ingalls


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

Tom Corbett is in bigger trouble than ever, trailing all the Democrats PPP tested
against him—when he led them all just two months ago.  The first-term Pennsylvania governor is down
11 points (34-45) against U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, and by an identical
margin against former Rep. Joe Sestak and state Treasurer Rob McCord.  Corbett also lags behind businessman Tom Wolf
by nine (33-42), and John Hanger by seven (34-41).  When PPP last polled the state in January,
Corbett led Hanger by four points, Sestak and McCord by six, Schwartz by seven,
and Wolf by 12.

Corbett’s deficits are even more remarkable when one considers that these
prospective opponents are unknown to the vast majority of voters.  When asked whether they have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of them, only 52% can say how they feel about Sestak, 38%
about Schwartz, 31% about Hanger, 30% about McCord, and 22% about Wolf.  To boot, the large group of undecided voters
in these match-ups is strongly Democratic, and they disapprove of Corbett even
more than the overall electorate does, so this could actually represent closer
to the governor’s ceiling than his floor.

Only a third of Keystone Staters approve of Corbett’s job performance, with
almost three in five disapproving.  It
was 38-52 when PPP last polled the state in January.  Unlike a lot of public figures who are able
to rebound from low approval ratings to be competitive against no-name
opponents at an early stage of the race, Corbett gets almost exactly the same
amount of the vote as he gets approval. 

The potentially bad news for Democrats is they may not actually get to run
against the incumbent.  Corbett’s
approval rating among GOP primary voters is 43-45, down 25 points from an
already weak 54-31 in January.  And they
would prefer someone else as their nominee by a 49-37 margin, more than flipped
from Corbett’s 45-37 edge last time.

“At this point Tom Corbett looks like the most endangered Governor in the
country up for reelection next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 504
Pennsylvania voters, including an oversample of 373 usual Republican primary
voters, from March 8th to 10th. The margin of error for
the overall survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-5.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .33%
Disapprove…………. .58%
Not sure …………….. . 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hanger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob McCord?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Allyson Schwartz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat John
Hanger, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 34%
John Hanger …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Rob
McCord, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 34%
Rob McCord……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Allyson
Schwartz, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 34%
Allyson Schwartz……………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Joe
Sestak, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 34%
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Tom
Wolf, who would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 33%
Tom Wolf………………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q12 In general, do you approve or disapprove of
how Tom Corbett has handled the Penn State
situation over the last few years?
Approve …………….. .25%
Disapprove…………. .58%
Not sure …………….. .17%

Q13 Do you support or oppose Tom Corbett’s plan
for privatizing the Pennsylvania lottery?
Support ……………… .17%
Oppose ……………… .67%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .45%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q2 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Governor next year to
be Tom Corbett or someone else?
Tom Corbett ……….. .37%
Someone else…….. .49%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q3 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Tom Corbett and Bruce Castor, who
would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……….. .43%
Bruce Castor………. .23%
Not sure …………….. .35%

Q4 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Tom Corbett and Tom Smith, who
would you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……….. .37%
Tom Smith………….. .33%
Not sure …………….. .30%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 29%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 40%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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