Raleigh, N.C. – In 2008, President Obama hosted the Democratic National Convention in Denver and became a rare Democrat to win the state of Colorado. The state was also one of only a few bright spots in an otherwise ugly election for his party last fall. Since then, the president’s approval rating has rebounded to 51%, with 45% disapproving, versus the 41-53 spread he posted in the state before that election. As an incumbent, his chances of re-election next year are tied strongly to voters’ views of his job performance. Not surprisingly then, 51% of Coloradans want to give Obama another term, while 44% plan to vote for his Republican opponent. But of the four actual Republican contenders tested against him in the state, only one can match this generic re-elect margin. The others trail by margins of nine to 19 points.
Mitt Romney, familiar for his stewardship of the 2002 Olympics in neighboring Utah, trails the president, 41-47. Mike Huckabee is next closest, down 42-51, identical to Obama’s nine-point victory over John McCain in 2008. Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin lag by respective 39-53 and 36-55 margins.
Democrats have a built-in eight-point turnout advantage over the GOP, so to win, the Republican nominee has to hold his base, win more Democratic votes than the president does Republican ones, and win independents outright. The ideal, unnamed eventual nominee does the first two of those things, but none of the named candidates, even Romney, can unite the GOP base as much as the generic candidate does. Obama earns the support of 83-87% of his party, while the Republicans can only muster 69% (Palin) to 81% (Huckabee) of theirs. Except for Palin, they do all take slightly more Democrats than the president does Republicans, but Obama posts double-digit leads with independents. In the generic matchup, he leads by 18 points with unaffiliated voters. Romney (-9) and Huckabee (-15) actually come closer than that, but Obama tops Gingrich by 23 and Palin by a whopping 30 with this group.
“Colorado is one of the states Republicans have to flip if they want to take the White House next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But right now, President Obama looks just as strong in the states he won last time as he did then, and Colorado continues to show that it’s trending toward Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 517 Colorado voters from February 4th to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Generally speaking if the election was today
would you vote for Barack Obama or his
Republican opponent?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 55%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 42%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 25%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 35%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
