Raleigh, N.C. – Things have hardly moved a blip since PPP last polled the presidential race in Colorado almost two months ago. President Obama is still favored to win again, leading by six points now (49-43), versus seven (49-42) in mid-June.
Having voted for Obama by nine points in 2008, and having elected a Democratic governor and senator in the Republican wave year of 2010, Colorado is emerging as a blue-leaning swing state rather than the red-leaning toss-up of elections just a few cycles ago. George W. Bush beat Al Gore by about eight points in 2000, and John Kerry by five in 2004. This sample reflects an electorate that reports having voted for Obama by only three points over John McCain, so in some ways, this is an improvement for the president over his standing four years ago.
Being the first poll of likely voters PPP has done in Colorado, this sample is also seven points less Democratic than in June. Despite the shift in projected turnout, Obama maintains his standing by shorting up his base. He now leads with his own party’s voters by a 92-5 margin, versus 87-7 two months ago. Republicans and independents have not budged virtually at all. Romney is up 85-10 with Republicans (84-9 in June), and Obama leads 49-38 with independents (48-38).
Unlike in previous surveys, Gary Johnson’s presence on the ballot is pulling more from Obama than from Romney. Obama leads only 46-42 with the libertarian nominee explicitly offered as a choice. Johnson gets 7%, essentially the same as in June (6%).
As in other states, Condoleezza Rice is the only of four potential running mates who would improve Romney’s chances materially, making it a 47-all tie. Obama’s lead is five with Bobby Jindal on the GOP ticket, six with Tim Pawlenty, and eight with Rob Portman.
“Barack Obama is favored to win Colorado again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The changing demographics of the state work in his favor.”
PPP surveyed 779 likely Colorado voters from August 2nd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Bobby Jindal for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Jindal………………………………………… 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Tim Pawlenty for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Pawlenty……………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q11 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Rob Portman for
Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 48%
Romney-Portman…………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 If the Democratic ticket this fall was Barack
Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice
President, and the Republican ticket was Mitt
Romney for President and Condoleezza Rice
for Vice President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 47%
Romney-Rice ………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 78%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
