Raleigh, N.C. – The Senate race in Colorado continues to look like it will be one of the closest in the country on Tuesday night. PPP’s final poll there finds Ken Buck ahead of Michael Bennet by the slimmest of margins, 49-48.
Each candidate has his party base pretty much sewn up. Bennet is winning 87% of Democrats and Buck is winning 86% of Republicans. Giving Buck his slim lead is a 50-46 advantage among independents.
One thing interesting to note within the results is that with respondents who say they’ve already voted- accounting for 66% of the sample- Bennet is actually ahead by a 52-46 margin. Buck leads 55-41 with those who say they have not yet cast their ballots. Bennet should probably be rooting for ugly weather on election day, any little thing could help in such a close race if he already has a lead in the bank.
Bennet continues to sport poor approval numbers- 39% of voters give him good marks while 47% say they aren’t happy with his job performance. Those numbers, not coincidentally, correlate closely with Barack Obama’s poor 41/53 breakdown in the state. Bennet’s stayed in this race because Buck has proven to be a weak candidate as well with a 44/48 favorability.
In the Governor’s race John Hickenlooper is looking a little bit more solid than he did a week ago and now leads by 5 points, getting 48% to 43% for Tom Tancredo and 8% for Dan Maes. Hickenlooper will probably win but there’s a very good chance he will do so without cracking 50% of the vote.
The Republican split has proven critical to his chances for victory. Hickenlooper is taking 87% of the Democratic vote while Tancredo is getting just 71% of Republicans with 15% still planning to cast their votes for Maes.
“The Colorado Senate contest is really a base election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Neither candidate has much in the way of crossover appeal so it’s all going to come down to whether more Democrats or Republicans vote.”
PPP surveyed 1,059 likely Colorado voters on October 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Michael Bennet ……………………………………….. 48%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 48%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
John Hickenlooper, Republicans Dan Maes,
and American Constitution Party candidate
Tom Tancredo. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 48%
Dan Maes ………………………………………………. 8%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hickenlooper?
Favorable ………….. 51%
Unfavorable……….. 38%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Maes?
Favorable ………….. 11%
Unfavorable……….. 66%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Ritter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate had been
Democrat Michael Bennet and Republican
Jane Norton, who would you have voted for?
Michael Bennet ……………………………………….. 43%
Jane Norton ……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 23%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 66%
No …………………………………………………………. 34%
