Polls

Collins favored for re-election, opposition to gay marriage declines

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Susan Collins has a 14 point lead over Democratic challenger Shenna Bellows…with Democrats. Overall Collins leads 59-20, including a 38 point advantage with independents. Collins continues to be among the 5 most popular Senators in the country with a 61% approval rating to only 27% of voters who disapprove of her. She’s well liked across party lines with her strongest numbers actually coming among Democrats (63/25), followed by Republicans (61/27), and independents (58/28).

If Collins has any potential vulnerability next year it continues to come with the Republican primary electorate. 44% of GOP voters say they’d support a more conservative alternative to her next year, compared to 48% who say they’d support Collins in a primary. Only 38% of Republican voters think she actually belongs in their party compared to 26% who think she should be an independent and 22% who believe she should be a Democrat. Still Collins’ vulnerability in a primary remains theoretical given her lack of serious opposition at this point.

A year after gay marriage became legal in Maine most voters think it’s no big deal. 72% say gay marriage has had no impact on their lives, with 15% saying it’s had a positive impact on them and just 13% claiming it’s had a negative effect on them. Even among voters opposed to gay marriage in the state 70% acknowledge that it hasn’t actually had any ill effect on their lives.

Last year voters approved gay marriage by 6 points at the polls. Now voters say they support it by a 17 point margin, 54/37. It’s 57/31 among independents, and voters under 30 favor it 65/26.

“These numbers are consistent with what we find in most states after they legalize gay marriage,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Most voters find that it has little or no effect on their lives, and we tend to find a decline in opposition to it compared to before it became legal.”

PPP surveyed 964 Maine voters, including 331 Republican primary voters, from November 8th to 11th . The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2% and for the Republican portion it’s +/-5.4%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 61%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shenna Bellows?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q3 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Susan Collins and Democrat
Shenna Bellows, who would you vote for?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 59%
Shenna Bellows ………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 55%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 57%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 57%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Maine, or not?
It should …………………………………………………. 54%
It should not ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q9 Has the legalization of same-sex marriage in
Maine had a positive or negative impact on
your life, or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 15%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 13%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 72%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Angus King’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 54%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q11 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Susan Collins’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 59%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q2 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be Susan Collins or someone more
conservative than her?
Susan Collins………………………………………….. 48%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q3 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 27%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 14%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 10%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 4%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%

Q4 Do you think Susan Collins belongs more in the
Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or as
an independent?
Democratic Party …………………………………….. 22%
Republican Party …………………………………….. 38%
Independent……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 45%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%

 

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