Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Mississippi Senate poll finds Thad Cochran in serious danger of losing the Republican primary if he seeks another term next year. 55% of GOP primary voters say they would prefer a ‘more conservative’ alternative to Cochran, compared to just 35% who say they support the long time Senator. And although Cochran still leads primary challenger Chris McDaniel 44/38, much of that lead is attributable to his higher name recognition. Among the 50% of primary voters who have heard of McDaniel, whether they like him or not, Cochran trails his challenger 60/29.
Cochran’s approval numbers with Republican voters have dropped precipitously over the last two years. In November of 2011 we found him with a 74/14 approval spread with them, but that’s declined now to 45/42. Unsurprisingly Cochran’s problems are coming with the furthest right segment of his party. Among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ he has just a 34/55 approval spread, trails McDaniel 51/32 head to head, and loses out to a generic ‘more conservative’ alternative 74/22.
If Cochran is the Republican nominee for the Senate next year the seat likely won’t be competitive. He actually has a positive approval rating with Democrats at 44/40 and that crossover support would make him close to unbeatable in a general election. He leads Travis Childers, who has actually floated the possibility of running, 50/33 in a head to head. He’s also up 50/37 on Ronnie Musgrove and 45/43 on Jim Hood in hypothetical contests.
If McDaniel is the Republican nominee though it looks like there’s at least some chance at a competitive race forming. He leads both Childers (41/38) and Musgrove (44/41) by just 3 points in head to heads and actually trails Hood by a couple points at 43/41. McDaniel just doesn’t have the same kind of support across party lines that Cochran does.
“Thad Cochran’s in pretty serious danger of losing the primary next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Conservatives have really soured on him over the last couple years and are ready for someone new.”
PPP surveyed 502 Mississippi voters, including an oversample of 422 Republican primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 4.4% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.8%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Travis Childers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Hood?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Delbert Hosemann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris McDaniel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ronnie Musgrove?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Thad Cochran and Democrat
Travis Childers, who would you vote for?
Thad Cochran…………………………………………. 50%
Travis Childers ………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Thad Cochran and Democrat Jim
Hood, who would you vote for?
Thad Cochran…………………………………………. 45%
Jim Hood………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Thad Cochran and Democrat
Ronnie Musgrove, who would you vote for?
Thad Cochran…………………………………………. 50%
Ronnie Musgrove…………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Delbert Hosemann and Democrat
Travis Childers, who would you vote for?
Delbert Hosemann…………………………………… 46%
Travis Childers ………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Delbert Hosemann and Democrat
Jim Hood, who would you vote for?
Delbert Hosemann…………………………………… 42%
Jim Hood………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Delbert Hosemann and Democrat
Ronnie Musgrove, who would you vote for?
Delbert Hosemann…………………………………… 46%
Ronnie Musgrove…………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Chris McDaniel and Democrat
Travis Childers, who would you vote for?
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 41%
Travis Childers ………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Chris McDaniel and Democrat Jim
Hood, who would you vote for?
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 41%
Jim Hood………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Chris McDaniel and Democrat
Ronnie Musgrove, who would you vote for?
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 44%
Ronnie Musgrove…………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q17 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q21 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 32%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q22 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thad
Cochran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Delbert Hosemann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris McDaniel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate
were Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel, who
would you vote for?
Thad Cochran…………………………………………. 44%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q5 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be Thad Cochran or someone more
conservative than him?
Thad Cochran…………………………………………. 35%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If Thad Cochran retired, who would be your top
choice to replace him, given the choices of
Gregg Harper, Delbert Hosemann, Chris
McDaniel, Alan Nunnelee, Steven Palazzo,
Stacey Pickering, and Tate Reeves?
Gregg Harper………………………………………….. 15%
Delbert Hosemann…………………………………… 23%
Chris McDaniel ……………………………………….. 25%
Alan Nunnelee ………………………………………… 8%
Steve Palazzo…………………………………………. 13%
Stacey Pickering ……………………………………… 5%
Tate Reeves……………………………………………. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 46%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%
