Polls

Close VA-Gov. election unless Warner returns

| Dustin Ingalls


Header-poll-results
Raleigh,
N.C. –
With it being
one of the most crucial states for Republicans this fall, both for their
chances of retaking the presidency and the Senate, few real voters in Virginia
have been putting much focus on next year’s gubernatorial contest.  Thus, there has been essentially no movement
between the potential candidates in the three times PPP has polled on the race
in the last four months.  If Mark Warner
chooses to abandon his Senate seat for another term in Richmond, the
exceedingly popular former governor would be the overwhelming favorite.  If he does not, it will likely be a close
election, regardless of whether Republicans settle on the presumably more
electable Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling or the more ideologically strident and
outspoken A.G. Ken Cuccinelli.

In his first
and perhaps final term, Warner is the 15th most popular out of 74 senators on
which PPP has polled since the start of 2011. 
50% approve and only 27% disapprove of his job performance.  At this point, he would lead Bolling by 14
points (50-36) and Cuccinelli by 17 (53-36). 
That is essentially the same as in July, and down a smidge for Warner
since April.

Cuccinelli
runs three to five points worse than Bolling right now.  While Bolling tops Terry McAuliffe by three
(40-37), Cuccinelli fights the ’09 Democratic primary runner-up to a 40-all
tie.  The disparity is worse against
former Congressman Tom Perriello. 
Bolling tops him by three (39-36), but Cuccinelli is down two (39-41).

20-25% of
voters are not sure who they favor in the non-Warner variations, a sign of low
name identification for all the other candidates but Cuccinelli, of whom 64%
have an opinion.  Only 31-39% can say how
they feel personally about the other three.

“Mark Warner
could put this election away for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling.  “But most of the
other possible candidates are so low-profile, and the political climate next
fall so unknown, that it’s tough to say how things will shake out.  But it will probably be a competitive
election sans Warner.”

PPP surveyed
855 likely voters in Virginia from August 16th to 19th.
The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. 
This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Warner’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .27%
Not sure …………….. .23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bolling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Cuccinelli?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry McAuliffe?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Perriello?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q6 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 40%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 39%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Bill Bolling and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Bill Bolling ………………………………………………. 36%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry
McAuliffe, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 40%
Terry McAuliffe………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Tom
Perriello, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 39%
Tom Perriello…………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Mark
Warner, who would you vote for?
Ken Cuccinelli …………………………………………. 36%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q18 Were you born in Virginia or in another state?
Virginia…………………………………………………… 49%
Another state ………………………………………….. 51%

Q19 How long have you lived in Virginia: 10 years
or less, 11 to 20 years, 21 to 30 years, 31 to 40
years, or more than 40 years?
10 years or less ………………………………………. 12%
11 to 20 years …………………………………………. 19%
21 to 30 years …………………………………………. 18%
31 to 40 years …………………………………………. 19%
More than 40 years………………………………….. 31%

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