Raleigh, N.C. – Both the contests for Governor and Senator in Colorado are now looking like toss ups, with Democrat John Hickenlooper’s lead all the way down to 3 points in the Gubernatorial race and the Senate contest an all out tie.
In the race to replace Bill Ritter Hickenlooper’s getting 47% to 44% for Tom Tancredo and 5% for Dan Maes. The near total collapse of Maes’ candidacy has allowed Tancredo to make this a competitive race: he’s now winning 73% of the Republican vote and has a 46/44 edge with independents.
Hickenlooper’s the most popular candidate for Governor, with a 51/41 approval rating. But his support has been stuck in the 47-48% range since before the primary. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough but as Maes’ support continues to dwindle to closer to zero Hickenlooper all the sudden looks extremely vulnerable.
Voters in the state have warmed up to Tancredo on a personal level as the campaign has progressed. In early August his favorability was an extremely negative 27/50 spread but he’s now on slightly positive ground at 45/44.
The Senate race is tied with incumbent Michael Bennet and challenger Ken Buck each at 47%. Bennet’s benefiting from a more unified party base, getting 92% of Democrats while Buck is at 84% of Republicans. But there are more Republicans in the likely voter pool for the state this year and Buck is ahead 46-44 with independents.
A worrisome sign for Bennet within the numbers is that 7% of Republicans are undecided while only 2% of Democrats are. That could be an indication that Buck has more room to grow his support over the final week of the campaign.
“2 or 3 weeks ago most experts would have told you Democrats were headed for a win in the Governor’s race and Republicans for one in the Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Now it’s hard to say who will come out ahead in either contest.”
PPP surveyed 818 likely Colorado voters from October 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Senate are Democrat
Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Michael Bennet ……………………………………….. 47%
Ken Buck ……………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
John Hickenlooper, Republican Dan Maes, and
American Constitution Party candidate Tom
Tancredo. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
John Hickenlooper …………………………………… 47%
Dan Maes ………………………………………………. 5%
Tom Tancredo …………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 49%
Not sure ……………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Hickenlooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Maes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Tancredo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bill
Ritter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 38%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If an independent or some other party,
press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q16 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q18
Thursday Night ……………………………………….. 53%
Friday Morning………………………………………… 19%
Friday Night ……………………………………………. 11%
Saturday Morning ……………………………………. 10%
Saturday Afternoon ………………………………….. 7%
