Raleigh, N.C. – There’s been a huge movement in the Connecticut Governor’s race over the last month and the race is now a toss up, with Republican Tom Foley inching ahead of Democrat Dan Malloy by a 49-47 margin after trailing 50-40 in early October.
A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days. A month ago Foley’s favorability rating was 41/40 and now it’s almost identical at 41/38. Voters aren’t really warming up to him. But Malloy’s numbers have seen a precipitous drop. At the beginning of the month he posted a stellar 50/29 favorability spread and that’s gone all the way down now to 39/40, a 22 point decline on the margin in just four weeks time.
Foley has built a dominant lead with independent voters at 58-33, even as they simultaneously split almost even with their Senate votes. A lot of indys in Connecticut are clearly planning to vote a Blumenthal/Foley ticket. Foley’s also seen a large increase in his crossover support, now taking 20% of Democrats compared to only 12% a month ago.
While the Governor’s race is now looking pretty interesting, the Senate contest is not. Richard Blumenthal leads by a 54-43 margin. Republicans probably could have been competitive in this race. Blumenthal’s net favorability is a +10 at 50/40. Those numbers don’t exactly scream invincibility and they represent a 30 point drop on the margin from when his favorability was +40 at the beginning of January. Republicans were not, however, going to be competitive with Linda McMahon as their nominee. 52% of voters view her dimly while only 37% see her in a positive light.
“The Senate race in Connecticut has drawn most of the national media attention over the course of 2010 but the contest for Governor is where the action is here in the final days of the campaign,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Tom Foley has made a furious comeback and it really could go either way at this point.”
PPP surveyed 759 likely Connecticut voters from October 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda
McMahon. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Richard Blumenthal………………………………….. 54%
Linda McMahon ………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Blumenthal?
Favorable ………….. 50%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Favorable ………….. 37%
Unfavorable……….. 52%
Not sure ……………. 12%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Dan Malloy and Republican Tom Foley. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Dan Malloy……………………………………………… 47%
Tom Foley ………………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Malloy?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 40%
Not sure ……………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Foley?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 38%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Jodi Rell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Chris
Dodd’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Joe
Lieberman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Denise Merrill and Republican Jerry
Farrell. If the election was today, who would
you vote for? If Denise Merrill, press 1. If Jerry
Farrell, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Merrill…………………………………………………….. 46%
Farrell ……………………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 35%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 59%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q13 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 52%
Conservative…………………………………………… 28%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q18 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 7%
No …………………………………………………………. 93%
