Raleigh, N.C. – David Dewhurst tonight became just the latest in a line of establishment Republicans to lose in Senate primaries this year, and it looks Tommy Thompson could be next on the list. PPP’s newest Wisconsin poll finds Eric Hovde leading with 28% to 25% for Thompson and Mark Neumann, and 13% for Jeff Fitzgerald.
Thompson’s seen a precipitous decline in his standing with GOP voters over the last 5 months. In February he was at 39%. By early July he had dropped to 29% in our polling and he’s continued to decline now to his 25% standing. His personal image has taken a big hit as well. Where his favorability with primary voters earlier in the year was a +47 spread at 66/19, it’s now declined 41 points to only +6 at 47/41.
It’s concern about whether Thompson is sufficiently conservative that is driving a lot of his problems. 58% of primary voters now say they want someone more conservative than him to be the nominee, compared to only 29% who are content with him. And he’s posting extremely weak numbers with voters identifying as ‘very conservative,’ getting 21% to 28% each for Hovde and Neumann.
The momentum in this contest is on Neumann’s side. He’s gained 10 points over the last month to go from 15% to 25%. His strength is coming from the most conservative wing of the GOP electorate. In early July he trailed Hovde by 20 points, 32-12, with those voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Now he’s pulled into a tie with him at 28%.
Hovde remains the unexpected leader in this contest but his momentum has stalled a good bit over the last month. His share of the vote has dropped from 31% to 28%, and his favorability has gone from a 50/9 spread to a 50/30 spread.
“Tommy Thompson’s position is looking more and more perilous as his establishment Republican brethren lose one primary after another,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This has become an exciting three way contest and it’s impossible to say what will happen in the last two weeks.”
PPP surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters on July 30th and 31st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Democratic or
Republican primary for the US Senate next
month, or do you not plan to vote in a primary?
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Don’t plan to vote in a primary …………………… 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jeff
Fitzgerald, Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 13%
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 28%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 25%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Eric Hovde?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Eric Hovde, Mark Neumann, and Tommy
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 33%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 27%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson, who
would you vote for?
Eric Hovde ……………………………………………… 48%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson,
who would you vote for?
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 47%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the
Republican Senate nominee next year was
Tommy Thompson or someone more
conservative?
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 29%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Would you say you are very excited, somewhat
excited, or not that excited about voting in the
primary election?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 42%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 34%
Not that excited……………………………………….. 24%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 34%
Q14 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 51%
Are not …………………………………………………… 49%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 26%
No …………………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%