Raleigh,
N.C. – Hillary
Clinton now leads Florida’s own Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio by double-digit
margins in 2016 presidential match-ups as her popularity continues to climb in
the state, according to PPP’s latest poll.
Clinton
leads Bush by 13 points (53/40), Paul Ryan by 13 points (54/41) and Rubio by 16
points (56/40). This is a significant gain from January, when Clinton led Bush
by 5 points and Rubio by 4 points. Clinton now claims 20-24% of the Republican
vote and 55-58% of the independent vote against each of her potential
Republican opponents. Her favorability has jumped to +19 (56/37) from an
11-point spread (52/41) two months ago.
Rubio’s
job approval, meanwhile, has taken a big hit in Florida. His numbers are barely
above water with 44% approving and 43% disapproving of his performance in the
Senate. This represents a significant decrease from his +13 (49/36) job
approval in January. The poll finds a drop in support from moderates and
independents. 37% of Florida voters support Rubio running for president in 2016
while 53% are opposed to the idea. Jeb
Bush’s favorability numbers have held steady in the past two months—he’s at +13
(50/37) compared to +16 (51/35) two months ago. Just 33% of Florida voters
think he should run for president in 2016 while 53% disagree.
“Floridians
don’t want either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio to run for President in 2016,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And they’d both be under dogs
against Hillary Clinton.”
In a 9-way
hypothetical GOP presidential primary for 2016, Bush and Rubio essentially tie
for the lead with 30% and 29% support respectively, followed by Rand Paul (11%)
as a distant third. In a two-way match-up, Rubio leads Bush 49% to 36%. Bush’s
base of support is moderate Republicans, while Rubio’s support is more
conservative. On the Democratic primary side, Clinton continues to sweep the
field with 62% support from primary voters, followed by Joe Biden at 12%.
Nobody else cracks double digits.
PPP surveyed 500 Florida voters as well as 300 usual
Democratic primary voters and 326 Republican primary voters from March 15th
to 18th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4%, +/-5.7%
for the Democratic portion and +/-5.4% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .44%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 56%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 54%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q7 Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President
in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 33%
He should not………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q8 Do you think Marco Rubio should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 37%
He should not………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 30%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 8%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 9%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 2%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 0%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 1%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 29%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 6%
Q2 If you had to choose between just Jeb Bush
and Marco Rubio as the Republican candidate
for President in 2016, who would you pick?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 36%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 27%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 62%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 82%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q5 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
