Polls

Clinton, Sanders close in CT/PA/RI; Trump Headed for Big Wins

| Tom Jensen

New Public Policy Polling surveys in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island conducted on behalf of VoteVets.Org Action Fund find the Democratic race for President in those states competitive, while on the Republican side Donald Trump is headed for blowout victories across the board.

The Democratic races in Connecticut and Rhode Island appear to be toss ups, with Clinton and Sanders each having a slight advantage in one of the states. In Connecticut Clinton has a narrow edge at 48/46, thanks in large part to a 63/24 advantage among African Americans. In Rhode Island it’s Sanders who has a 49/45 lead. Clinton’s up 54/40 with actual Democrats there, but Sanders is up 67/28 among independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary and that gives him the overall lead. Clinton has a wider lead in Pennsylvania at 51/41, although that still represents a closer race than most public polls have shown over the last few weeks.

State

Democratic Results

Connecticut

Clinton 48, Sanders 46

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, Sanders 41

Rhode Island

Sanders 49, Clinton 45

Things aren’t nearly so competitive on the Republican side, with Donald Trump getting a majority of voters in each state. He’s strongest in Rhode Island where he gets 61% to 23% for John Kasich, and 13% for Ted Cruz. The numbers are very similar in Connecticut with Trump getting 59% to 25% for Kasich, and 13% for Cruz. Things are a little bit different in Pennsylvania where Trump’s share of the vote isn’t as high (51%) and Cruz edges out Kasich 25/22 for second place. None of these states are particularly amenable to the ‘Never Trump’ movement. Trump has the highest favorability rating of the GOP candidates in each state, and also handily wins head to head match ups with Cruz and Kasich in all three states. One thing that comes across in all these places is how unpopular Cruz is- he’s way under water even with Republican primary voters.

State

Republican Results

Trump Favorability

Cruz Favorability

Connecticut

Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13

66/27

26/61

Pennsylvania

Trump 51, Cruz 25, Kasich 22

59/36

35/51

Rhode Island

Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13

69/26

24/59

Over 60% of voters in each of these states are opposed to the privatization of health care services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs. What’s particularly noteworthy is that in addition to more than 70% of Democrats in each of the states, there’s also a majority of Republicans in opposition. This is a concept that doesn’t draw support from voters in either party:

State

Overall Privatization

With Democrats

With Republicans

Connecticut

24/64

19/70

34/55

Pennsylvania

27/65

22/70

31/57

Rhode Island

20/73

14/79

33/57

This is also an issue where voters across party lines say they would punish politicians who advocate for privatization of VA health care services. 59-68% of voters in the three states say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported doing that, and that includes pluralities of Republicans in addition to strong majorities of Democrats who would be less likely to vote for a candidate that advocated privatization of VA health services.

State

Overall Privatization Support Impact on Vote for Politician

With Democrats

With Republicans

Connecticut

26% More Likely, 59% Less Likely

21/66

36/49

Pennsylvania

25% More Likely, 63% Less Likely

19/73

33/53

Rhode Island

20% More Likely, 68% Less Likely

14/75

33/49

Another issue we find bipartisan agreement on is the desire for candidates who will work to lessen the United States’ dependence on fossil fuels by embracing measures like solar, wind, and renewable fuels. Over 60% of primary voters in each of these states are more likely to vote for someone who makes that a priority. That includes more than 70% of Democrats and more than 50% of Republicans in each state.

State

Overall Lessen Dependence on Fossil Fuels

With Democrats

With Republicans

Connecticut

71% More Likely, 19% Less Likely

79/12

58/32

Pennsylvania

63% More Likely, 27% Less Likely

73/17

50/40

Rhode Island

75% More Likely, 18% Less Likely

82/11

63/27

Finally we find that voters in all three of these states want the Supreme Court seat filled this year- and despise Mitch McConnell, whose unpopularity we continue to find could be a big drag on Senate Republicans seeking reelection this fall. McConnell has a 10% approval or less in each state. At the same time, voters in all three places support filling the Supreme Court vacancy this year by a double digit margin:

State

Support/Oppose Filling Supreme Court Vacancy This Year

McConnell Approval

Connecticut

59/34

10/48

Pennsylvania

52/39

7/43

Rhode Island

58/34

8/48

Full results here

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