Raleigh,
N.C. – Hillary
Clinton could beat Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush on their home turf in a
presidential contest, according to PPP’s latest poll.
In a
hypothetical 2016 match-up, Clinton leads Rubio by 4 points, 50% to 46%, and she
beats Bush by 5 points, 49% to 44%. Both of these modest leads are within the
poll’s margin of error. The main reason Clinton leads both candidates is her
strong appeal among moderates, who favor her 63% to 29% over Bush and 63% to
32% over Rubio.
Clinton’s
+11 favorability rating (52/41) is actually lower than Rubio’s +13 job approval
(49/36) and Bush’s +16 favorability rating (51/35). Despite their popularity at
home, Florida voters don’t support Rubio or Bush running for president in the
next election—they oppose the idea 53% to 31% for Bush and 49% to 38% for
Rubio.
In a
nine-way contest, Clinton is the favorite for a whopping 65% of Democratic
primary voters, followed by Joe Biden (15%), Andrew Cuomo (4%), Elizabeth
Warren (4%), Deval Patrick (1%) and Mark Warner (1%). 88% have a favorable
opinion of Clinton. If Clinton and Biden decide not to run, Cuomo would lead
the pack with 22% support, but 48% of Democrats are not sure or would support
different candidates.
“Hillary
Clinton would be a force to contend with in the 2016 presidential election,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She would clear the
Democratic primary field and be tough to beat in the general election.”
In a
nine-way contest, 31% of Florida GOP primary voters would choose Rubio to run
for president to 26% for Bush and 11% for Huckabee. Nobody else gets above
single digits.
Florida
voters approve of President Obama’s job performance 50% to 48% and of Ben
Nelson’s job performance 43% to 40%. Minting a trillion-dollar coin to avoid
the debt ceiling isn’t popular in Florida—54% of voters are opposed, with just 15%
in support.
PPP surveyed 501 Florida voters, including an oversample of 401 usual Democratic
primary voters and 436 Republican primary voters, from January 11th
to 13th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion, and +/-4.7% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bill
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .43%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .49%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 50%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q8 Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President
in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 32%
He should not………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 Do you think Marco Rubio should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should……………………………………………….. 38%
He should not………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Would you support or oppose minting a trilliondollar
coin to avoid the debt ceiling?
Support ………………………………………………….. 15%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 11%
White …………………………………………………….. 68%
African-American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 26%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 7%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 5%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 31%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Marco Rubio’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .80%
Disapprove…………. .12%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 78%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 9%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 15%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 65%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q2 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 22%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 3%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 5%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 15%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 48%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 88%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 11%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 65%
Man……………………………………………………….. 35%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 17%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
