Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Arkansas poll finds that the Clinton brand is still pretty strong in the state. Bill Clinton has a 55/37 favorability rating there, and Hillary Clinton leads all but one of the leading Republicans there in hypothetical 2016 match ups despite the state’s recent Republican lurch. Clinton leads Jeb Bush 46/41, Rand Paul 48/42, and Chris Christie 47/38.
“It looks like Hillary Clinton would have a pretty decent chance at winning Arkansas if she runs for President in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s pretty impressive given Mitt Romney’s 24 point win there last time around.”
The one Republican Clinton trails is Mike Huckabee at 47/44. Huckabee is the overwhelming choice of home state GOP voters to be their candidate for President in 2016- 38% say he would be their pick to 14% for Ted Cruz, 13% for Rand Paul, 10% for Jeb Bush, 4% for Chris Christie, 3% each for Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, and 2% for Cliven Bundy.
Voters in the state side with Democrats on a couple of key issues that have cropped up in the Senate recently. 56% support increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour, compared to 36% who are opposed. More than 80% of Democrats support it, and so do 34% of Republicans. 52% support the Paycheck Fairness Act to only 23% opposed, numbers driven by the sentiment 92% of voters in the state express that men and women should receive equal pay for equal work. Only 5% say they disagree with that.
Arkansas reflects what we find in most southern states when it comes to attitudes about rights for same sex couples- voters don’t support gay marriage but they do at least support legal rights in the form of civil unions. Only 27% of voters in the state support gay marriage to 63% who are opposed. You can see the wheels turning though- while seniors oppose gay marriage 18/74, voters under 30 actually support it 53/32. When you broaden the discussion to civil unions 54% of voters support some form of legal recognition to only 41% opposed to any at all.
PPP surveyed 840 registered voters, including 342 Republican primary voters, from April 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should run …………………………………. 39%
Think he should not …………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you support or oppose the Paycheck
Fairness Act, which seeks to address the issue
of male-female income disparity?
Support ………………………………………………….. 52%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? ‘Women and men should earn
equal pay for equal work.’
Agree …………………………………………………….. 92%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q10 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 27%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..24%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 13%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 24%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 13%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walmart?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Duggars?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q16 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston
Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles
Angels, New York Yankees, St. Louis
Cardinals, and Texas Rangers, which is your
favorite major league baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 6%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 4%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 6%
Astros ……………………………………………………. 2%
Royals……………………………………………………. 5%
Angels……………………………………………………. 1%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 6%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 31%
Rangers …………………………………………………. 8%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite team …. 30%
Q17 Given the choices of the Dallas Cowboys,
Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston
Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans
Saints, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and
Tennessee Titans, which is your favorite
professional football team?
Cowboys………………………………………………… 31%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 11%
Packers………………………………………………….. 8%
Texans …………………………………………………… 1%
Chiefs ……………………………………………………. 6%
Saints…………………………………………………….. 6%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 2%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 3%
Titans…………………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else / Don’t have a favorite team …. 29%
Q18 Would you say you are most a fan of the
University of Arkansas, the University of
Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of
Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Arkansas State
University, or the University of Central
Arkansas?
Arkansas………………………………………………… 51%
Arkansas-Little Rock………………………………… 5%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff …………………………………. 6%
Arkansas State ……………………………………….. 13%
Central Arkansas …………………………………….. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q19 (Q19-21 asked only of Arkansas fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Bret Bielema
is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Petrino?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q21 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike
Anderson is doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 58%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 12%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 32%
Q26 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 19%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q28 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Cliven Bundy, Jeb Bush,
Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee,
Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and
Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Cliven Bundy…………………………………………… 2%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 4%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 38%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 13%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 3%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 3%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 10%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
