Raleigh, N.C. – Having skated by to a narrow victory against an unpopular incumbent in a Republican cycle in Democratic leaning New Jersey, Chris Christie had his work ahead of him in winning over the state. One and a half years into his term, he hasn’t succeeded. As is true for many of the newly elected Republican governors, Christie faces underwater approval ratings with only 43% of voters approving and 53% disapproving. This is down significantly from his 48-45 rating in January. About as many Democrats approve of Christie, as Republicans disapprove, 17, but Christie is down with independents 40-54.
Despite Christie’s poor ratings, a do-over with former governor Jon Corzine would be a fiercely competitive race with each candidate earning 48% of the vote. Jon Corzine is burdened by his own poor 39-47 favorability rating. Nevertheless, Corzine has improved from his 34-57 rating in November 2009.
Against possible 2013 opponents, Christie is also in a tight race. He leads New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney 42-40, ties Congressman Frank Pallone 42-42 and trails Newark Mayor Cory Booker 43-47. If Bruce Springsteen decided to make a run for Governor as a Democrat, he would also tie Christie 42-42. Democrats and Republicans are each mostly unified around their party, but independents lean towards Christie. Christie’s numbers look better than they actually are as more than twice as many Democrats are undecided as are Republicans in every matchup.
Of the Democratic politicians, Booker is the most popular with a 43-16 favorability rating. On the other hand, Pallone and Sweeney rate quite poorly at 15-23 and 13-37 respectively. The Boss is most popular, edging out Booker with a 50-22 rating.
“Christie’s popularity has fallen considerably over the last few months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Forget the White House- he’d be lucky to get a second term as Governor right now.”
PPP surveyed 480 New Jersey voters from July 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Chris Christie’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Corzine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 If you could do the 2009 election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Republican
Chris Christie or Democrat Jon Corzine?
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 48%
Jon Corzine…………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Pallone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Springsteen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Sweeney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Cory
Booker, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Frank
Pallone, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 43%
Frank Pallone………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Bruce
Springsteen, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Bruce Springsteen …………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor in 2013 were
Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Steve
Sweeney, who would you vote for?
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Steve Sweeney……………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 12%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 22%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
Other……………………………………………………… 30%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 14%
