Raleigh, N.C. – Pennsylvania’s soon-to-be-senior Senator Bob Casey has accomplished a rare feat for a Democratic politician, or for any politician, in this anti-incumbent, Republican-leaning political environment: he has upped his job performance numbers since April 1^st, the last day PPP polled the state.  Meanwhile, in a potential 2012 sequel to the 2006 contest in which Casey ousted former Senator Rick Santorum, Casey would get a majority and beat the Republican by double digits.

Casey leads Santorum in the hypothetical redo, 51-39.  Unlike most Democrats this year, Casey is up with independents, 41-32, and holds more of his base than does the Republican candidate.  Casey pulls 80% of Democrats to Santorum’s 73% of Republicans, 88% of liberals and 64% of moderates to Santorum’s 69% of conservatives, and 84% of Obama voters to Santorum’s 73% of McCain voters.  There is a huge gender gap; the two are tied among men at 45%, but Casey leads with women, 55-34.  Casey leads among blacks, 78-17, and among the 87% majority whites, 48-41.

Casey’s job approval margin is now 36-35 in favor, versus 31-38 just under three months ago.  He has slightly improved among both Democrats and Republicans, and the intensity is now less on the disapproval side.  While 60% of Republicans disapproved and 47% of Democrats approved previously, the disparity is now only 55-52.

Santorum is just as polarizing, with a 56-20 personal favorability mark among Republicans, and a 19-54 one among Democrats.  The difference lies among independents, who disapprove by a 36-45 margin to give him a 36-39 grade overall.

“If Republicans want to take out Bob Casey in 2012 they’re probably going to have to find someone other than Rick Santorum to do it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Casey would defeat him handily once again.”

PPP surveyed 609 Pennsylvania voters from June 19^th to 21^st.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 29%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%

Q3 If the candidates for Senate next time were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q4 Who did you vote for President last year?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 5%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 8%

Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%