Raleigh, N.C. – With yesterday’s release showing Rick Santorum eight points down to President Obama in the former senator’s home state, Santorum may choose to abandon his exploration of a presidential bid in favor of a rematch of his 2006 loss to now Senator Bob Casey. If he does that, he would at least make it much closer than the rout Casey laid on him four years ago, but he would come little closer than he does against the president. If he chooses neither route, Casey would win re-election by 13 to 23 points against four other, far lesser-known GOP possibilities.
Casey tops Santorum, 48-41. Santorum now posts the same level of support he did in the previous match-up of the two candidates, but he at least has 11% of voters on the fence about Casey this time. Casey leads former acting governor Mark Schweiker, 47-34; 6th-District Rep. Jim Gerlach, 49-33; 15th-District Rep. Charlie Dent, 51-31; and attorney Marc Scaringi, the only announced candidate so far, by a 50-27 margin.
Casey leads Santorum, 49-29, with independents. That lead grows to 49-27 against Gerlach, 49-25 against Schweiker, 51-21 against Scaringi, and 55-17 against Dent. But where Casey really trounces the non-Santorum hopefuls is in party unity, where Casey only barely edges Santorum. He holds the others to only 52- 66% of the GOP’s support, and takes at least twice as many Republicans as all but Schweiker do Democrats.
Casey is pretty popular compared to most senators in this climate, with a 41-29 approval rating. He’s only tepidly liked by his own partymates, but also not nearly as strongly disliked as other politicians are by the opposing party, and breaks even with independents. Aside from Santorum’s 38-44 favorability rating, with 19% having no opinion, the rest of the potential GOP nominees against Casey are blank slates. A whopping 85% have not heard of Scaringi, 76% of Dent, 74% of Gerlach, and 66% of Schweiker. And except Schweiker, who has a 19-15 with those who do know him, all the others are viewed unfavorably by at least 2:1 margins.
“Bob Casey’s going to start out his reelection bid in a much better position than a lot of the other Democrats first elected in 2006,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He has an unusual amount of appeal to Republicans and independents.”
PPP surveyed 547 Pennsylvania voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the work Ed
Rendell did during his eight years as
Governor?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Corbett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the work
Arlen Specter did during his 30 years in the
Senate?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Dent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schweiker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Charlie
Dent, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 51%
Charlie Dent……………………………………………. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Jim
Gerlach, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Mark
Schweiker, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 47%
Mark Schweiker ………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Marc
Scaringi, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 50%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 45%
Conservative…………………………………………… 39%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
