Raleigh, N.C. — Pennsylvania’s senior Senator Bob Casey has a healthy 10 point advantage over his opponent, businessman Tom Smith. Even following PPP’s last poll in the state which gave him a larger 16 point lead, these results are good news for Casey considering approval numbers that have been, and remain, tepid at best.
That mark is basically unchanged from the May poll, and is even with 36% approving and 36% disapproving of the Senator’s job performance. This comes both from lower than optimal support among Democrats, who only approve of Casey by a margin of 53% to 23%, and a decidedly chilly figure from Independents, with whom Casey’s net rating is -7.
The incumbent’s margin in the horserace comes from a solidification of affiliated voters and the support of Independents, who prefer Casey over Smith by 42% to 32%. However, Smith may very well see his numbers rise as his name recognition increases over the course of the race. Currently, only 36% of voters know enough about Smith to form an opinion. While those 36% break against Smith, giving him a -8 rating, independents view him favorably by a slim 1 point margin, better than Casey’s rating and much better than his own -26 point rating from May.
“Bob Casey remains the clear favorite in the Pennsylvania Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there’s a pretty good chance Tom Smith will make it closer than Rick Santorum did.”
Governor Tom Corbett would be in serious trouble if he had to fight for reelection this year. His approval rating has deteriorated further from -13 in May to -17 in the latest poll, driven under by upside down numbers among Independents and near 30% disapproval from his own party. Corbett is currently running 6 points behind a generic Democrat in the 2014 race.
PPP surveyed 758 Pennsylvania voters from July 21st to 23rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.56%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .36%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q3 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Bob Casey and Republican Tom Smith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 46%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Kathleen Kane and Republican
David Freed. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Kathleen Kane ………………………………………… 41%
David Freed ……………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q5 The candidates for Auditor General are
Democrat Eugene DePasquale and
Republican John Maher. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Eugene DePasquale………………………………… 36%
John Maher…………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 The candidates for Treasurer are Democrat
Rob McCord and Republican Diana Irey-
Vaughan. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Rob McCord……………………………………………. 37%
Diana Irey-Vaughan …………………………………. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q7 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .32%
Disapprove…………. .49%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election
today, would you vote for Republican Tom
Corbett or his Democratic opponent?
Tom Corbett ……….. .39%
Democratic
opponent……………..45%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .32%
Disapprove…………. .30%
Not sure …………….. .39%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Penn State University as a whole?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Paterno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Do you think Penn State should remove the
statue of Joe Paterno from its campus, or not?
The statue should be removed ………………….. 35%
It should not ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Sandusky?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 94%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of the recently
passed law requiring voters to show photo ID
at the polls?
Approve …………….. .58%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. . 4%
Q16 Some reports have estimated that up to 1.5
million registered voters in Pennsylvania lack
the proper photo ID that they will need to vote.
Many of them are elderly or poor and live
without a car, and others live 10 or more miles
from a PennDot office. The state is offering
photo IDs for free to anyone who does not
have an acceptable ID already, if those voters
can get themselves to a PennDot office.
Knowing this, do you approve or disapprove of
the recently passed law requiring voters to
show photo ID at the polls?
Approve …………….. .57%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. . 5%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
