Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Bob Casey holds large leads over a relatively unknown field of Republican challengers, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Casey’s job approval rating numbers are fairly neutral with just 38% of voters approving, 36% disapproving and 26% not sure. But Casey is benefitting from his potential Republican challengers’ lack of name recognition and as a result leads each of them by 15-20 points.
None of the five potential Republican challengers PPP tested are well-known enough by voters to have more than even a quarter of respondents able to render a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. David Christian has a 6% favorable rating, with 13% unfavorable and 82% not sure; Sam Rohrer is at 12/13 with 75% not sure; Marc Scaringi is at 5/12 with 83% not sure, Tom Smith comes in at 12/13 with 76% not sure; and Steve Welch is at 5/12 with 83% not sure.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Casey leads all challengers by double digits, but with large percentages of voters not sure who they would vote for in head to head matchups. Casey leads Christian 50-32 with 18% not sure; he leads Rohrer 49-34 with 17% not sure; he leads Scaringi 49-29 with 22% not sure; he leads Smith 49-31 with 20% not sure and he leads Welch 49-29 with 22% not sure.
“Bob Casey leads his Republican challengers handily for the time being, but the race may get closer as voters get to know the alternative candidates better,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
In the Republican primary for Senate, “undecided” is far and away the current winner with 48%. Among Republican primary voters who chose a candidate, Rohrer garners the most support with 16%, followed by Smith with 12%, Christian with 10%, Scaringi with 8%, and Welch with 5%.
PPP surveyed 689 Pennsylvania voters, as well as an oversample of 564 Republican primary voters, from March 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.7% and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .38%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Christian?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Rohrer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Welch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican David
Christian, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 50%
David Christian ……………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Sam
Rohrer, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Sam Rohrer ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Marc
Scaringi, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Tom
Smith, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Steve
Welch, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ……………………………………………… 49%
Steve Welch……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 13%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Christian?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Rohrer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Welch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Senate are
David Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi,
Tom Smith, and Steve Welch. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
David Christian ……………………………………….. 10%
Sam Rohrer ……………………………………………. 16%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 8%
Tom Smith………………………………………………. 12%
Steve Welch……………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 48%
Q7 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 41%
Are not …………………………………………………… 59%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
