Raleigh, N.C. – With name recognition
and hefty campaign coffers, Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is in prime
position for a 2014 Senate race. In head-to-head match-ups, she leads Democrats
Sheirl Fletcher and Natalie Tennant by double-digit margins.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 72% have a favorable opinion of
Capito. In a five-way contest, she leads with 72% of the vote. West Virginians
like her the way she is – only 21% of Republican voters said they wanted
someone more conservative.
Republican candidate Pat McGeehan trails Tennant but leads slightly against
Fletcher. He has a 9% favorability rating, with 22% unfavorable and 69% not
sure.
Capito is most popular with Republican voters over age 65, while more than a
quarter of 18-45-year-old voters say they want someone more conservative. She
has immense support among somewhat and very conservative voters.
On the Democratic survey, 51% prefer Tennant for their 2014 Senate
candidate. 34% aren’t sure or want someone else. Tennant has her strongest
support among people who identify as very or somewhat liberal or moderate. 18-45-year-old voters are the biggest
supporters of Fletcher. Tennant is most popular with voters over age 65.
Barack Obama has 28% approval and 67% disapproval. Half of Democratic voters
in the state say they disapprove of the President’s job performance. 91% of
Republicans and 74% of Independents also disapprove.
“Shelley Moore Capito is starting out as the favorite in the race to replace
Jay Rockefeller,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She’s
in a good position for both the primary and general election. The question for
Natalie Tennant is whether she can close the gap as she increases her name
recognition to the point where she’s as well known as Capito.”
PPP surveyed 1,110 West
Virginia voters, including 600 usual Democratic primary voters and 348 usual
Republican primary voters, between September 19-22, 2013. The margin of error
for the overall survey is +/- 2.9%, +/- 4.0% for the Democratic portion, and
+/- 5.3% for the GOP portion. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any
campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sheirl Fletcher?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McGeehan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natalie Tennant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Shelley Moore Capito and
Democrat Sheirl Fletcher, who would you vote
for?
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 54%
Sheirl Fletcher…………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Shelley Moore Capito and
Democrat Natalie Tennant, who would you vote
for?
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 50%
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Pat McGeehan and Democrat
Sheirl Fletcher, who would you vote for?
Pat McGeehan………………………………………… 27%
Sheirl Fletcher…………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Pat McGeehan and Democrat
Natalie Tennant, who would you vote for?
Pat McGeehan………………………………………… 32%
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 34%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 57%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Moore Capito?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McGeehan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q3 Given the choices of Shelley Moore Capito,
Rick Lemasters, Pat McGeehan, Scott “Cody”
Regan, and Edwin Vanover, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 72%
Rick Lemasters ……………………………………….. 5%
Pat McGeehan………………………………………… 4%
Scott “Cody” Regan …………………………………. 1%
Edwin Vanover………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 17%
Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be Shelley Moore Capito or someone more
conservative than her?
Shelley Moore Capito……………………………….. 65%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Sheirl Fletcher, David
Harless, Natalie Tennant, and David Wamsley,
who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for Senate next year?
Sheirl Fletcher…………………………………………. 8%
David Harless …………………………………………. 3%
Natalie Tennant……………………………………….. 51%
David Wamsley……………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 34%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 11%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
