Raleigh, N.C. – Leading into 2012, Washington Senator Maria Cantwell appears to be in just as safe shape as she was in the strong Democratic year of 2006, when she won her first re-election bid by 17 points. She leads five potential opponents by 13-19 points.
Perennial candidate Dino Rossi gets the highest level of support, but also drives Cantwell to her highest, trailing 53-40. Rep. Dave Reichert and philanthropist Susan Hutchison each lag, 49-35; 2010 Senate primary loser Clint Didier, 51-35; and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, 50-31. Cantwell has leads of five to 12 points with independents, who are slightly more numerous than Republicans in this state. She also earns 85-92% of her own party’s votes and pulls more Republican support (8-9%) than any of the Republicans do Democratic support (2-5%).
Voters’ views of Cantwell’s performance in office have climbed dramatically since before last fall’s election, when PPP measured her at a 41% approval rating, with 43% disapproving. Now, half approve and 36% disapprove, a 16-point swing. In addition to improvement across the partisan spectrum, part of the strengthening in Cantwell’s standing is that last fall’s pro-Republican enthusiasm gap has almost disappeared. Poll respondents report having voted for Obama over McCain by 14 points, versus his actual 17-point victory in 2008. .
Also helping her is that none of Cantwell’s potential opponents is seen positively. The best-known, Rossi, has a 37-52 favorability spread; the next best known, Reichert, a 25-36; Hutchison a 19-24; Didier a 14-28; and the least-known, Rodgers, a 13-21.
“Maria Cantwell doesn’t appear to be in much trouble for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Republicans were going to win a Senate seat in Washington they needed to do it last year when the winds were in their direction and Democratic voters were a little bit disengaged.”
PPP surveyed 1,098 Washington voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 50%
Disapprove………… 36%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Clint Didier?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susan Hutchison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cathy McMorris Rodgers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Reichert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dino Rossi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican Clint
Didier, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 51%
Clint Didier ……………………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican
Susan Hutchison, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 49%
Susan Hutchison……………………………………… 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican
Cathy McMorris Rodgers, who would you vote
for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 50%
Cathy McMorris Rodgers ………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican
Dave Reichert, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 49%
Dave Reichert …………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican Dino
Rossi, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 53%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 31%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
