Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Maria Cantwell leads her real and potential Republican challengers by double digits, a new poll by Public Policy Polling finds. Cantwell leads State Senator Michael Baumgartner, her only announced challenger, 51%-36%, with 15% undecided. She leads Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant 50%-36%, and she leads perennial loser Dino Rossi 53%-41%.
Cantwell benefits from the extreme lack of name recognition among Baumgartner and Bryant. Just 8% of voters have a favorable opinion of Michael Baumgartner, with 14% unfavorable and a whopping 78% not sure. Bill Bryant is in a similar position, with just a 5% favorable rating, 10% unfavorable and 85% unsure. Dino Rossi naturally has higher name recognition, but voters just don’t like him – 50% view him unfavorably compared to 38% who view him favorably.
Cantwell’s overall job performance rating is positive at 47% approval and 38% disapproval. Cantwell’s job performance rating is down just slightly from the last time PPP polled Washington in May 2011. Back then her approval rating stood at 50/36. Women approve of Cantwell’s job performance by a wide margin (51/32) while men are split (43/45). She gets high approval marks from Democrats (81/10), independent voters are split 40/43, and she gets the approval of nearly 1/5 of Republicans while about 2/3 disapprove (17/65).
“Maria Cantwell’s in a strong position for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Her own approval numbers are pretty good and she’s also benefiting from weak opposition.”
PPP will conclude its Washington poll next week with a look at some sports issues in the state.
PPP surveyed 1,264 Washington voters from February 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.76%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Maria Cantwell’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Baumgartner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Bryant?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dino Rossi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican
Michael Baumgartner, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 51%
Michael Baumgartner……………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican Bill
Bryant, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 50%
Bill Bryant……………………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Maria Cantwell and Republican Dino
Rossi, who would you vote for?
Maria Cantwell ………………………………………… 53%
Dino Rossi ……………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 39%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14 Area Code
206………………………………………………………… 13%
253………………………………………………………… 12%
360………………………………………………………… 33%
425………………………………………………………… 15%
509………………………………………………………… 27%
