Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s latest poll, two of the leading GOP candidates for president next year come a little closer than John McCain did to defeating Barack Obama in California—but a little closer than 24 points is still a long way off from becoming the first Republican to win the state since 1988.
Mike Huckabee is the most competitive with the president, losing by 15 points, 54-39, followed by Mitt Romney’s 20-point deficit, 56-36. Those two are the only ones who exceed McCain’s finish in the state, but even Newt Gingrich ties the 2008 nominee, 58-34. Only Sarah Palin gets routed by what is an unusually decisive blowout even for Republicans, lagging Obama by a 2:1 margin, 62-31.
The president is culling more GOP support than any of the Republicans are Democratic votes, and he wins independents by margins of 19 (against Romney) to a whopping 44 points (versus Palin). Against the former Alaska governor, 90% of Obama’s party is already behind him, and only 1% are undecided, but her candidacy causes an inordinately high 14% of Republicans to remain on the fence, with only two-thirds in her camp.
Before last fall’s election, President Obama’s approval rating had sunk to only 45-47 in this deep blue state, but without that more conservative electorate, and in the wake of a larger nationwide rebound, he now sits at a more expected 53-41. The Golden State now gives him his fourth highest approval rating of any of the 40 states PPP has polled in the previous year, after Maryland, his native Hawaii, and Massachusetts.
By contrast, none of his prospective challengers is even close to treading water with the voting public. Romney’s 32-46 personal favorability rating is the closest any of them gets to breaking even. Huckabee sits at 29-47, Gingrich at 25-55, and Palin at an amazing 28-67. Two-thirds of the most populous state in the nation dislike her.
“It’s pretty safe to say the eventual Republican nominee won’t darken California’s door next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 892 California voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 58%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 54%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 62%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 56%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 46%
Conservative…………………………………………… 30%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If Asian, press 4.
If other, press 5.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 19%
White …………………………………………………….. 63%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Asian……………………………………………………… 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
