Polls

Cain vaults into lead over Romney in Iowa caucus, Perry in 4th

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
Herman Cain has surged into the lead in Iowa, and Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann crashed, with three months still to go in the race for the first nominating contest.  Cain has 30% to Mitt Romney’s 22%, Ron Paul’s 10%, Perry’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s 8%, Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%.  When PPP last polled the state in August, just after Bachmann’s straw poll win and Perry’s entrance into the race, Perry led with 22% to Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Cain’s 7%, and Gingrich’s and Santorum’s 5%, so Perry has dropped 13 points, Bachmann ten, and Paul six, while Cain is up a whopping 23 points, and Romney and Gingrich each three over the course of a month and a half.

PrimaryGraph

Cain’s support could only grow if other candidates are not viable at certain caucus sites.  He and Gingrich, who were first and second in PPP polls in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska last week, get the most second-choice support.  Gingrich is the fallback of 17%, followed by Cain’s 16%, Perry’s 12%, Romney’s and Bachmann’s 11%, and Paul’s 9%.  Cain gets the plurality of Bachmann’s, Santorum’s, and surprisingly, Romney’s backers, while Gingrich gets Cain’s and Paul’s, and Romney pulls Gingrich’s and Huntsman’s.  Perry’s support is spread around.

Cain leads Romney 2:1 (38-19) among the 42% who say they are firmly committed to their first choice, while the two are tied at 27% among the 58% who may change their mind.  Johnson, with his one supporter, has the most committed yet small base.  His libertarian compatriate Paul is next; 53% of his voters are with him, do or die, then 52% of Perry’s, half of Cain’s, 43% of Gingrich’s, and then only 34% of Romney’s and a quarter of Bachmann’s.  Romney has had consistent but soft support.

“Herman Cain not only has the lead in Iowa, he also has far more committed supporters than Mitt Romney,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That doesn’t mean his support will be lasting though- just ask Michele Bachmann.”

PPP surveyed 311 probable Iowa caucusgoers from October 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 8%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%

Q14 (Asked only of those who made a choce in
Q13:) Would you say you are strongly
committed to that candidate, or might you end
up supporting someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 42%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 58%

Q15 (Asked only of those who made a choice in
Q13:) Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 16%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%

Q16 Do you think that Mitt Romney is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 35%
Too conservative……………………………………… 6%
About right ……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q17 Do you think that Rick Perry is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 21%
Too conservative……………………………………… 15%
About right ……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q18 Do you think that Herman Cain is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 6%
Too conservative……………………………………… 10%
About right ……………………………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q19 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q20 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Hermain Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q21 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 52%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q23 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%

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