Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain’s day in the sun continues into a fifth week, as he leads the Republican primary field in both North Carolina and Maine in PPP’s latest polls. In N.C., he has 30% to Newt Gingrich’s 22%, Mitt Romney’s 19%, and Rick Perry’s 10%, with the five others at 4% or less. In Maine, Cain tops with 29% to Romney’s 24% and Gingrich’s 18%, with the other six at 5% or less. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney have each gained a bit and Perry fallen since a month ago in the Tar Heel State, when Cain had 27% to Romney’s and Gingrich’s 17% and Perry’s 15%. PPP has not polled Maine since March, when the field was quite different. Cain was not tested then, and Romney and Gingrich are up only slightly.
If Cain fades, whether through the sexual harassment allegations or his other missteps or his lack of organization in the early states, Gingrich, who has already been surging, could be the beneficiary. Cain’s voters pick Gingrich as their second choice by nine to 14 points over Romney and Perry in each state. Indeed, Gingrich leads the second-choice vote overall in both states, 19-18-12-10 over Cain, Romney, and Perry in N.C. and 19-13-11-10 over the same candidates in Maine.
Tea Partiers will have a tough time toppling Olympia Snowe in the GOP Senate primary next year. Their supporters are divided between two candidates right now, and even an idealized more conservative candidate would oust Snowe only 47-46 in a generic test. That is down 24 points from 58-33 in March. Snowe’s approval rating with these voters is up 11 points to 51-37 from 47-44 in that time frame. And though both Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D’Amboise have increased their still paltry name recognition in the last seven months, Snowe has more than doubled her margin over her nearest challenger in the named ballot test, meaning it is a referendum on her, regardless of how voters feel about her opponents. Snowe leads D’Amboise and Dodge, 62-10-7, up from 43-18-10.
PPP surveyed 474 likely Republican primary voters in North Carolina from October 27th to 31st, and 250 usual GOP primary voters in Maine from October 28th to 31st. The margin of error for the North Carolina survey is +/-4.5%, and +/-6.2% for the Maine survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline reults are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Maine Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Olympia Snowe’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott D’Amboise?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Ian Dodge?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 29%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q11 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 33%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 67%
Q12 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 13%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate were Scott
D’Amboise, Andrew Ian Dodge, and Olympia
Snowe who would you vote for?
Scott D’Amboise ……………………………………… 10%
Andrew Ian Dodge …………………………………… 7%
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate next year to be
Olympia Snowe or somebody more
conservative than her?
Olympia Snowe……………………………………….. 46%
Somebody more conservative …………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 21%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
North Carolina Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 22%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 34%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 66%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 18%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 26%
Q10 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 53%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 78%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
