Raleigh, N.C. – By all accounts, Herman Cain had a brutal debate in Nevada last week, but it has not hurt his standing in that state at all. Mitt Romney, the candidate long expected to win the Nevada caucus, as he did in 2008, now leads Cain only 29-28. When PPP last polled the state in July, that spread was 31-8, as Cain was then tied with Newt Gingrich for fifth out of eight candidates. As in a lot of states now, Cain has swapped places with Rick Perry, the brief Tea Party hero. Perry is down from a second-place 18% to a fifth-place 6%. Michele Bachmann has also plummeted from 14% to 3%, now leading only Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson in the low single digits. Gingrich has had a more minor surge than Cain, but he has almost doubled his support in the state, up seven points to a third-place 15%. Ron Paul stands in fourth at 7%, down from 11%. The one good sign for Romney is that more of his supporters (59%) have made up their minds than Cain’s (41%). And if the race came down to just those two, the other candidates’ supporters would give Romney a 48-40 buffer.
Romney is not the only electable former frontrunner on shaky ground in a primary. Tommy Thompson, the Republicans’ best shot at snatching Herb Kohl’s Senate seat next year, barely leads conservative favorite, former Rep. Mark Neumann, 35-29, with another right-wing darling, State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, at 21%. Thompson is in third with the most conservative voters, and the gap could continue to close, especially if conservative support rallies around one of Neumann or Fitzgerald. Neumann now trails by only four points when he and Thompson are pitted head-to-head. That is half the deficit from May. Further, a test with a generic “more conservative” candidate gives Thompson a 51-35 deficit.
“This now makes 4 weeks in a row of Herman Cain leading our polling,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s getting pretty close to being something more than a flavor of the month.”
PPP surveyed 450 usual Nevada Republican primary voters and 650 Wisconsin primary voters from October 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the Nevada survey is +/-4.6%, and +/-3.8% for the Wisconsin survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Nevada Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 28%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 43%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 57%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 18%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 0%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q10 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 65%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 60%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 31%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Wisconsin Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fitzgerald?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Lasee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Neumann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 30%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q12 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 31%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 69%
Q13 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 18%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 17%
Q14 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q15 If the Republican race for President came
down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who
would you vote for?
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q16 If the Republican race for President came
down to Herman Cain and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 49%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q17 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Jeff Fitzgerald, Frank Lasee, Mark Neumann,
and Tommy Thompson who would you vote
for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 21%
Frank Lasee……………………………………………. 4%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 29%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q18 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Jeff Fitzgerald and Mark Neumann, who
would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 28%
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q19 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Jeff Fitzgerald and Tommy Thompson, who
would you vote for?
Jeff Fitzgerald …………………………………………. 35%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q20 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
just Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson,
who would you vote for?
Mark Neumann ……………………………………….. 39%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q21 Generally speaking, would you prefer that the
Republican Senate nominee next year was
Tommy Thompson or someone more
conservative?
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 35%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
