Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first survey of likely voters in the North Carolina U.S. Senate race, Democrat Elaine Marshall is behind incumbent Republican Richard Burr, 43-38, with Libertarian Michael Beitler at 6% and 13% undecided. PPP’s late July survey of registered voters had Burr up, 39-37. Marshall still trails Burr in party unity. She only picks up 69% of her own party’s vote, while Burr gets 75% of the GOP and 16% of Democrats to Marshall’s 9% of Republicans. Like Democrats and Republicans, independents break down similarly to the previous poll, with Burr on top, 41-21-15, over Marshall and Beitler.
Burr is viewed much more favorably by this set of probable voters than by the wider electorate measured in previous polls. He posted his worst job approval rating ever last month, 32-44, worse than President Obama’s in the state. But he now stands at 38% approval and 42% disapproval. Burr’s eight-point improvement corresponds with a seven-point decline for Obama, who is now at 43-54, after posting a 46-50 in July. Marshall is actually better liked than Burr, with a positive 25-21 breakdown in personal favorability, but remains an unknown to 54% of voters.
The slight improvement for Burr and decline for Obama reflects a Republican-friendly shift in turnout. Obama won North Carolina by less than 1% in 2008, but the 2010 electorate reports voting for John McCain, 54-45, a 10-point swing toward the Republicans. Democrats also have only a 45-40 partisan advantage, versus 45-32 in the overall registered electorate and 46-34 in July.
“Richard Burr remains the most vulnerable Republican Senator in the country, and President Obama is liked better here than even in typically bluer Pennsylvania,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Elaine Marshall’s persistent single-digit deficit before Burr starts really flexing his financial muscles this week has to worry Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 724 North Carolina voters from August 27th to 29th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%|
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 40%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 55%
No opinion………………………………………………. 5%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Beitler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q6 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Republican Richard Burr, Democrat Elaine
Marshall, and Libertarian Michael Beitler. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Richard Burr……………………………………………. 43%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 38%
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 1%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q9 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 15%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 27%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 31%
Small Town …………………………………………….. 27%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 45%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q14
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 24%
