Raleigh, N.C. – Despite improving his job performance ratings from a month ago, Senator Richard Burr is now in a near tie with Elaine Marshall and barely ahead of Cal Cunningham following the May 4 primary.

Marshall now trails Burr only 43-42, versus 43-37 last month.  Cunningham lags 44-39 after losing 43-35 in April.  Marshall does slightly better with Democrats and independents and about the same with Republicans as Cunningham.

North Carolina voters’ opinions of how Burr is handling his job inched upward from a negative 32-41 in early April to 37-40 now.  Kay Hagan also went from 34-44 to 36-42.  Both improved their margins among independents, Burr from -12 to -1, and Hagan from  -27 to -5.  Burr also improved slightly among fellow Republicans.

Cunningham has raised his profile slightly more than has Marshall, and voters have broken evenly for and against him since April.  Now 16% express a favorable opinion of Cunningham to 18% unfavorable, as opposed to only 5-8 in April.  Marshall is still in positive territory, at 23-20, but voters split somewhat against her, from 19-11 last month. 

Marshall is a more polarizing candidate, with significantly better favorability numbers with Democrats and much worse numbers with Republicans than Cunningham, but that could be a factor of the impression among both parties’ voters that Marshall was the winner of the primary and the inevitable challenger to Burr.  PPP will release numbers on the June 22 runoff tomorrow.

“For months Richard Burr’s lead over Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham was artificially inflated because of their low name recognition,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “With the primary campaign under their belts both Democrats are now looking very competitive for the fall.”

PPP surveyed 631 North Carolina voters from May 8^th to 10^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic
Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve ……………… 36%
Disapprove………….. 42%
Not Sure……………… 22%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance? If
you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press
2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cal Cunningham? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 16%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not Sure……………. 66%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 56%

Q5 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Cal Cunningham and Republican
Richard Burr, who would you vote for? If Cal
Cunningham, press 1. If Richard Burr, press 2.
If you’re undecided, press 3.
Cunningham …………………………………………… 39%
Burr……………………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%

Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican
Richard Burr, who would you vote for? If
Elaine Marshall, press 1. If Richard Burr, press
2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Marshall …………………………………………………. 42%
Burr……………………………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the general election this fall?
Very excited……………………………………………. 52%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 27%
Not very excited………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%

Q9 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town? If
urban, press 1. If suburban, press 2. If rural,
press 3. If a small town, press 4.
Urban…………………………………………………….. 14%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 30%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 27%
Small Town…………………………………………….. 29%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%

Q12 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%

Q14
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 21%
828………………………………………………………… 14%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 22%