Raleigh, N.C. – Having aired several TV commercials since PPP last polled the race in late August, North Carolina’s Republican Senator Richard Burr has expanded his persistent but previously small lead over Democrat Elaine Marshall to double digits, and by an almost 3:1 margin, likely voters think Burr has been running the more active campaign. Marshall has aired no ads since the June primary.
Burr tops Marshall with a near majority, 49-36, with Libertarian Michael Beitler at only 4%. In the previous survey, Burr was up only 43-38-6. The difference is that Republicans are now nearly unanimous, 88% of them supporting Burr and only 5% for the other two. Burr also now leads independents over Marshall and Beitler, 51-26-10, up from 41-21-15 last time. He has also upped his support slightly among Democrats, to Marshall’s detriment. She now only gets 66% of her party, to Burr’s 20%. A slight silver lining for Marshall is that twice as many Democrats are undecided as Republicans.
54% of North Carolina voters think Burr’s campaign has been more visible, with only 19% thinking Marshall’s has. Even Democrats, by a slim 37-34 margin, choose Burr. Republicans, at 71-5, and independents, at 63-9, are unequivocal.
While Beitler’s share of the vote has continued to decrease since PPP first began testing his candidacy in July, 56% do think he should be included in all televised debates. Support for Beitler’s inclusion runs across the partisan spectrum—71% of independents, 54% of Democrats, and even 51% of Republicans think he should be on the stage.
“Money can’t buy you love but it can buy you an election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Richard Burr’s war chest is letting him get his message out to North Carolina voters with Elaine Marshall unable to respond in kind. That’s allowing him to post his best approval numbers in months and expand his lead. The undecided are moving toward him in droves.”
PPP surveyed 681 likely North Carolina voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Republican Richard Burr, Democrat Elaine
Marshall, and Libertarian Michael Beitler. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Richard Burr……………………………………………. 49%
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 36%
Michael Beitler ………………………………………… 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Republican
Senator Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elaine Marshall?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michael Beitler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 Do you think Michael Beitler should be included
in the televised debates for the Senate race?
Yes………………………………………………………… 56%
No …………………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you think Elaine Marshall or Richard Burr
has been running the more visible campaign
for US Senate?
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 19%
Richard Burr……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 3%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q9 Would you describe the community you live in
as urban, suburban, rural, or a small town?
Urban…………………………………………………….. 16%
Suburban ……………………………………………….. 27%
Rural ……………………………………………………… 27%
Small Town …………………………………………….. 29%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 19%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
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