Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace John Murtha in the US House is a close one, but Republican Tim Burns has a slight 44-41 advantage over Democrat Mark Critz for now.
Both candidates are relatively popular. 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of Burns to 26% with an unfavorable one. For Critz it’s 41% who view him positively and 34% negatively. It’s rare to find a race these days where both candidates have a positive net favorability rating.
Burns is winning thanks to an overwhelming lead with independents and because he’s winning over far more Democrats than Critz is Republicans. Burns has a 51-31 advantage with voters who don’t identify with either party. He’s also winning over 22% of Democrats while Critz gets just 10% of Republicans.
It’s surprising the race is as close as it is given the way voters in the district feel about national Democrats. 57% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama to only 33% who give him good marks. And when it comes to his health care bill just 28% of voters are supportive with 59% in opposition.
Pennsylvania’s leading Democrats don’t meet with much favor in the district either. Arlen Specter has just a 28% approval rating and Ed Rendell’s is only 24%.
“It’s going to be somewhat amazing if Mark Critz wins this race given the way voters in his district feel about Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “His low ratings are something a long time incumbent like Murtha might have been able to weather, but you wouldn’t expect Democrats to win an open seat anywhere that gives Obama an approval rating under 40%. Still it remains a toss up with a month to go before the election.”
PPP surveyed 1,197 likely voters in PA-12 on April 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the upcoming special
election for Congress are Republican Tim
Burns and Democrat Mark Critz. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Tim Burns ………………………………………………. 44%
Mark Critz ………………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Burns?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Critz?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not Sure……………. 26%
Q4 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the special election next month?
Very excited……………………………………………. 45%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 23%
Not very excited………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nancy Pelosi? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 64%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 28%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 59%
No opinion………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Democrats in Congress are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Republicans in Congress are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 26%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 24%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 28%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Toomey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 56%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you vote for?
Arlen Specter ………………………………………….. 37%
Pat Toomey ……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the work
John Murtha did during his time in the US
House?
Approve …………………………………………………. 55%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Would you like to see the next Representative
from your district carry on John Murtha’s
legacy?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 49%
No …………………………………………………………. 37%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 50%
Obama…………………………………………………… 43%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 43%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 55%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q20 If you are white, press one now. If other, press
2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
