Raleigh, N.C. – Two days after PPP showed Elizabeth Warren the first and only candidate to post a lead over Sen. Scott Brown, new primary numbers show she may soon clear most of the field on the way to the Democratic nomination to challenge Brown. Warren earns the support of 55% of Bay State Democratic primary voters, far ahead of Alan Khazei’s 9%, Tom Conroy’s 7%, Marisa DeFranco’s and Bob Massie’s 2%, and Setti Warren’s and Herb Robinson’s 1%. 22% are undecided. 58-81% have not heard of the other contenders, versus only 31% of Warren, so some ground could be made up if they can up their name identification. But that will be hard with the national money and political support and even much of the grassroots backing Warren.
Republicans are even more united around their incumbent than Democrats around their newcomer. Only 21% would prefer a generic “more conservative challenger,” while 70% want Brown to be the nominee for a full term. Even only 27% of the most conservative voters are open to defeating Brown, and they are a mere 15% of this more liberal state’s GOP electorate, versus their 40-50% share in others. Brown has solidified his standing with his party since PPP last polled the state in June.
Romney dominates the Republican Presidential field, with a 50-14 lead over Perry, way ahead of Michele Bachmann’s 7%, Ron Paul’s, Newt Gingrich’s, and Herman Cain’s 5%, Jon Huntsman’s 3%, and Rick Santorum’s and Gary Johnson’s 1%. Perry is proving a stronger challenger than past candidates. In June, Romney led Bachmann, 56-12, with Perry not included.
“It doesn’t look like Elizabeth Warren’s going to have a very difficult time winning the Democratic nomination,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “And it’s worth noting that her strong support spans the ideological spectrum- it’s not just liberals supporting her.”
PPP surveyed 255 usual Massachusetts Republican primary voters, with a +/-6.1% margin of error, and 461 usual Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.6% margin of error, from September 16th to 18th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Conroy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alan Khazei?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Massie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Setti Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Between Tom Conroy, Marisa DeFranco, Alan
Khazei, Bob Massie, Herb Robinson, Elizabeth
Warren, and Setti Warren, who would you most
like to see as the Democratic candidate for
Senate next year?
Tom Conroy ……………………………………………. 7%
Marisa DeFranco …………………………………….. 2%
Alan Khazei…………………………………………….. 9%
Bob Massie…………………………………………….. 2%
Herb Robinson………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 55%
Setti Warren……………………………………………. 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 64%
Republican……………………………………………… 2%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Scott
Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 72%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you think Scott Brown is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 19%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q9 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 26%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 If the Republican primary for Senate next year
was between Scott Brown and a more
conservative challenger, who would you vote
for?
Scott Brown ……………………………………………. 70%
More conservative challenger ……………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 47%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 5%
Republican……………………………………………… 48%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 46%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
